Justin Trudeau’s Liberals waited until the last minute before calling a by-election in the riding of Toronto–St. Paul’s, left vacant since the resignation of former minister Carolyn Bennett last December. The vote on June 24 in this former red castle is causing serious concern among the liberal troops. A defeat in St. Paul’s, barely a year before the general election, would further shake confidence in their leader, who persists in presenting himself as the man for the job after nine years in power.
Located in the heart of the Queen City, St. Paul’s riding includes the ultra-wealthy Forest Hill neighborhood, where Bay Street’s most prominent CEOs, bankers and lawyers call home. The Conservatives have not won since the days of Brian Mulroney. A Conservative victory on June 24 would constitute a highly symbolic breakthrough likely to galvanize the leader, Pierre Poilievre, and his troops. The Conservatives currently hold no seats in Toronto. Their return to the Canadian metropolis would mark an important step towards victory in 2025.
The by-election in St. Paul’s is also attracting the attention of strategists from all political parties for another reason. More than 15% of voters there are Jewish, placing St. Paul’s fourth among Canadian ridings with the largest number of Jewish voters. This arrives after Thornhill, in the northern suburbs of Toronto, Mont-Royal, on the island of Montreal, and Eglinton–Lawrence, in Toronto. However, the Canadian Jewish community has shown increasing dissatisfaction with Mr. Trudeau’s government since the start of the war in Gaza. Canada’s abandonment of its almost unconditional support for Israel at the United Nations is strongly denounced by the country’s main Jewish organizations.
Canada abstained in a vote on May 10 on the recognition of Palestine as a UN member state, although it had always voted against such resolutions in the past. The Israeli government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “has made clear, both in its words and in its actions, that it rejects the two-state solution,” Global Affairs Canada said in explaining the change in course. “We believe that we must continue to progress towards the self-determination of Palestinians… Canada is ready to recognize the State of Palestine at the most favorable time for the establishment of lasting peace, not necessarily at the the final stage of the process. »
However, the refusal of the Trudeau government to go further by immediately recognizing a Palestinian state, as Spain, Norway and Ireland did this week, greatly irritates representatives of the Muslim community. Canadian. Just like the reluctance of Mr. Trudeau and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland to support the request of the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC), Karim Khan, who this week called for arrest warrants against Mr. Netanyahu and his Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, for war crimes, as well as against three Hamas leaders. Mr. Khan’s exit creates strong unease within the Trudeau government, which does not help it formulate a response that can satisfy everyone.
Indeed, the Liberals have been losing ground among Jewish and Muslim voters since the Hamas attack in Israel on October 7. The general unpopularity of the Trudeau government undoubtedly has something to do with it, but the outbreak around the Israeli-Palestinian question certainly contributes to its fall in voting intentions. According to an Angus Reid Institute poll, the Conservatives hold a nine percentage point lead over the Liberals among Jewish voters, with the support of 42% of them, compared to 33% for Mr. Trudeau. Although this is a gap half the size of the Conservatives’ twenty-point lead for all Canadian voters, it is nonetheless a setback that threatens the Liberals in St. Paul’s, Mont-Royal and Eglinton-Lawrence. The Conservatives already hold Thornhill, where the party’s deputy leader, Melissa Lantsman, is all but assured of victory in 2025.
Among Muslim voters, the Liberals are lagging behind the New Democratic Party by ten points, again according to Angus Reid, with the support of 31% of voters from this community, compared to 41% for the NDP. Of all the religious groups surveyed by Angus Reid, this is the strongest support for Jagmeet Singh’s party. This is twice as much as the voting intentions he received nationally. New Democrats were behind a motion debated in the House of Commons in March that called on the federal government to immediately recognize the state of Palestine. The Liberals managed to have the motion amended by instead calling for the continuation of work “with a view to establishing the State of Palestine within the framework of a negotiated two-state solution.” Mr. Singh called on the Trudeau government to support Mr. Khan and his request for an arrest warrant against Mr. Netanyahu.
Canada had more than 1.8 million Muslims, compared to 335,000 Jews, at the last census in 2021. According to an analysis by former senior federal official Andrew Griffith, 109 Canadian ridings have between 5% and 20% Muslim residents ; and there are six where Muslims make up between 20% and 50% of the population. The political weight of Muslim voters now exceeds that of Jewish voters. Proof of the political mess in which they have found themselves plunged since October 7, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are no longer popular with either the former or the latter.