The Ukrainian capital Kiev remains the target of four army corps, notably the 20th and 36th Russian armies. And the objective became clearer: that of encircling the city. The Russians had launched their offensive from the north, coming from both Russia and Belarus, and passing in particular through the Chernobyl site. They are now increasing their pressure from the west and northwest, particularly in the Bucha and Irbin area. Where the presence of Chechen militiamen was spotted.
The Russian army also destroyed most of the bridges, only the one at Bilhorovoka remains. This is not a minor point, because among the almost four million inhabitants of Kiev, the majority flee by these roads towards the west, towards Lviv. Russian aircraft also bombed a town south of Kiev, Bila Tserkva. But, on the ground, the progress of the Russians remains slow all around Kiev, even nil during the last 24 hours. This should be seen as a sign of Ukrainian resistance and perhaps acts of sabotage beyond the front line. The Russian army is still 15 or 20 km from the center of Kiev.
In the south of the country, another big city is preparing to undergo the Russian assault, it is Odessa, undoubtedly the next target of Vladimir Putin. Odessa, one million inhabitants in the southwest of the country. The great port city on the Black Sea, the city of the famous Potemkin Stairs, in the film Battleship Potemkin. It is a symbol for Russia, a holiday resort at the time of the Tsarist Empire, and above all a geostrategic position: it is the port outlet for wheat and raw materials. And it is the possible junction point between Crimea, already conquered to the east, and the small region of Transnistria, in Moldavia to the west, pro-Russian and already partly autonomous.
After conquering the city of Kherson at the end of last week, the Russian forces are therefore seeking to progress towards Odessa, first attacking the town of Mikolakjiv, which is just over 100 km away. Bombardments and naval air attacks are therefore to be feared this week in this critical zone.
After 12 days of war, the Russians are progressing: it’s still a steamroller with undeniable air superiority and more troops. So the russian army advances, especially in the east from the formerly separatist areas of Donbass, and in the south from the Crimea. It’s more complicated in the north anyway as long as Kiev isn’t surrounded.
Since Saturday March 5, the advance of the Russians seems very limited. It may be for supply issues. Perhaps because the Ukrainian army conducts effective light operations. But it can also simply mean that the Russian general staff is thinking about a new phase of the attack. It is a reputedly heavy staff. So the adaptation of the maneuvers can be a bit slow.