The baby boomer generation has long reigned as king and master over Canadian society. Those born in the two decades following the Second World War were responsible for all the changes that occurred in the social and political mores of post-war Canada. After all, they had strength in numbers. Never has a cohort occupied such a large proportion of the Canadian population — up to 40% in the 1970s. In Quebec, it was mainly the baby boomers who carried the sovereignty movement on their shoulders. It is also among this generation that support for independence remains highest.
Unfortunately, the ranks of baby boomers are shrinking day by day as deaths exceed the arrivals of immigrants who are part of this cohort. Result: for the first time, the generation of millennials (whose members were born between 1981 and 1996) includes a greater number of people in the Canadian population than the generation of baby boomers. According to Statistics Canada, which revealed it this week, millennials account for 23% of the Canadian population, or approximately 9.3 million people. And their influence is only increasing.
Although not all of them can vote — their ranks having been swollen by the large influx of permanent and temporary residents in recent years — millennials now constitute the largest political bloc in the country. The party that is most successful in reaching this electorate is likely to win the next federal election. Unfortunately for them, the Liberals are no longer popular with this key generation. This is quite a reversal of fortune for Justin Trudeau’s troops.
Mr. Trudeau became prime minister in 2015 thanks to the enthusiasm of millennials, many of whom were voting for the first time. The Liberal leader had captured their imagination with a modern style and a progressive program, not to mention his promise to legalize marijuana. The generation of Canadians who grew up with Raffi’s songs were encouraged by him to defeat the Conservative government of Stephen Harper. He even composed a song for the occasion, entitled I Want My Canada Back (“I want my Canada back”). On election day, a record proportion of young people went to the polls. The participation rate of voters aged 18 to 24 jumped by more than 18 percentage points compared to 2011 to reach 57.1%; among 25-34 year olds, the increase was 12 points (57.4%).
Since then, millennials, like all of us, have become older. The rising cost of living and access to homeownership have replaced the legalization of cannabis at the top of their political concerns. They are now between 27 and 42 years old, and their generation is more in debt and more pessimistic about its financial future than that of the baby boomers. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s focus on affordability issues and the housing crisis would largely explain his rise in the polls over the past year. Millennials have something to do with it.
According to the latest Abacus Data poll, which dates from the beginning of February, the conservatives hold a lead of 26 percentage points over the liberals in the voting intentions of 30-44 year olds. While 45% of voters in this cohort support Mr. Poilievre’s troops, only 19% support the Liberals. 20% support the New Democratic Party. Surprisingly, it is now among those over 60 that the Liberals obtain their best score, i.e. 30%. The survey, drawn from a panel of 2,398 adults, does not have a margin of error, but, for comparison, the maximum margin of error for a random sample of this size would be plus or minus two percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The outing in which Mr. Poilievre this week called for the exclusion of trans women from women’s sports and public spaces reserved for women, including bathrooms, may, however, upset many millennial voters. In fact, they do not identify with the conservative social policies favored by Mr. Poilievre’s troops, who adopted several resolutions of this type during the party’s convention in Quebec last September.
But it is especially economic issues that concern millennials in 2024. And in this sense, the news is bad, no matter where it comes from, for Mr. Trudeau.