If by the end of June, Justin Trudeau does not ease up on immigration, François Legault once again launches the ultimatum of a sectoral referendum.
Sorry, but this referendum will never take place.
Mr. Legault knows it. Mr. Trudeau knows it. Everybody knows it. François Legault is also aware that even if he won, Ottawa would send him home empty-handed.
Just as Mr. Legault has no interest in serving the PQ as a dress rehearsal for its promised referendum on sovereignty.
So why is Mr. Legault bringing out his fictitious rattle? Because he seems to be preparing a fallback position, which he will nevertheless try to present as a “gain” for Quebec.
The image of a victory
Plummeting in the polls while public services are failing everywhere and the housing crisis is escalating, the “r” word initially serves as a convenient diversion.
As leader of the “third way” in front of a rising PQ, Mr. Legault is also looking for a “victory”, even partial, on so-called nationalist terrain.
Hence his abandonment of his official request for full immigration powers. A promise from the CAQ which, in any case, was as little credible as that of the third link.
Make way for the new demands of his Minister of Immigration: greater knowledge of French in the categories of immigrants under federal jurisdiction, fewer non-permanent residents and reimbursement of costs for asylum seekers.
Small steps theory
François Legault also says he wants to pre-approve the number of temporary immigrants and require them to know French. Its objective: to try to present its decline as a possible future “gain” for Quebec.
This is the famous theory of “small steps” so dear to disciples of the third way. The last word, however, will belong to Justin Trudeau. However, when two lame ducks negotiate, it is difficult to predict how it will end.