Let’s not be afraid of words: the current housing crisis is, in several respects, mutating into a social crisis. A growing share of the population is in distress. Our relatively generous social safety net is being torn apart by our inability to provide enough housing. The homelessness that is now found everywhere in Quebec is the most visible effect, with its makeshift camps that spring up in the middle of winter.
Behind the clearly visible despair of homelessness lies a multitude of less spectacular, but very real, suffering. From young people, unable to begin their lives as independent adults, to the elderly, the main victims of evictions, the most vulnerable among us are feeling the crisis the most. It won’t stop there. Already, entire sections of the population are also deprived of the simple possibility of moving. If the trend continues, the crisis will affect us all in one way or another.
The latest data from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) confirm this acceleration of the crisis. Rent increases are well outpacing inflation, vacancy rates are at an all-time low, housing starts are stagnant and interest rates are months away from falling. The proverbial light at the end of the tunnel appears more like a mirage than a real promise.
This acute crisis becomes fertile ground for simplistic responses, such as pointing to immigration, an aggravating factor, but which is not at the source of the problem, or as a pretext for attacking political adversaries, as have suffered Valérie Plante and Bruno Marchand, even if an analysis of the facts shows that they probably did better than the average.
Housing is much more complicated than that, and the current crisis is not specific to Quebec or even to Canada.
Rather than attacking each other with polarizing shortcuts, now is the time to pursue mature, courageous and rigorous politics in order to organize a real way out of the crisis.
Let’s face reality: the roots of the problem are structural. They are anchored in our tax system, our culture, our planning deficit, our complacency in the face of speculation, our disengagement from social housing. Added to this are economic factors (interest rates, labor shortages, inflation, immigration), and here we are in a “perfect storm” with cataclysmic potential.
In the short term, we urgently need palliative measures to alleviate the current situation and protect the most deprived. But for a lasting exit from the crisis, we must tackle all the causes in depth — no single miracle solution will solve the problem, worse, certain decisions could make it worse. To achieve this, we propose four essential, concomitant and documented strategies.
Firstly, and this is fundamental, we must have the obsession to build new housing, with a view to increasing the vacancy rate (experience tells us that we must aim for 7% vacancy, rather than the 3% often mentioned). Cities have an important role to play in this strategy, through regulatory adaptations to promote density and accelerate construction. Moreover, all over the world, higher levels of government are intervening to make this approach obligatory.
Secondly, we must put in place a legislative and fiscal framework that breaks the wings of speculation. If the crisis hits less hard in Quebec than in Ontario or British Columbia, it is because the rent control mechanism somewhat balances the rules of the game. The intention to eliminate the assignment of lease in the Bill 31, which will have an immediate upward effect on housing prices, is all the more incomprehensible. It is clear that the rise in prices has not led to more construction, and that one day we will have to admit that housing can only be a good investment when there is none. enough for everyone.
Third, there must be massive investment in non-profit housing construction. Let us be clear, the private sector has a role to play in overcoming the crisis. But the State must support the development of a much stronger non-profit sector, which will help increase the number of housing units, particularly in times like this when the private sector is struggling to build. This non-profit sector will obviously make it possible to protect the most vulnerable in the long term: if we had not underinvested in social housing for decades, the current crisis would cause less suffering.
Finally, we must tackle construction costs so that our investments, both private and public, are not eaten up by their increase. In particular, it will be necessary to review certain building code rules, speed up approval processes and work to prevent blockages at the end of the project.
But the challenge of resolving the housing crisis goes a little further. Where we live is also what determines the way we move, the territory and the energy we consume, and which has the biggest effect on our environmental footprint. From now on, the priority analysis grid of our governments, all levels combined, must, in each decision, be threefold. Will we allow the construction of enough housing to meet diverse needs, while limiting speculation? Are we going to reduce our greenhouse gases? Are we going to do it by reducing our consumption of land and energy, and by strengthening our resilience to climate change?
If we obsess over these three questions, we can avoid the Crisis of Crises.
For the Legault government, which is looking for a compass, here is one. Unfortunately, the direction he has taken in this matter is not the right one. There is still time to change course.