the questions that arise after the presentation of a peace plan by Joe Biden

The American president’s surprise announcement took Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right allies by surprise, who are threatening to leave the government.

The plan for one Does the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip presented by Joe Biden have a chance of succeeding? Two days after the presentation of this road map by the President of the United States, the vagueness remains as to the fate that will be reserved for it, both on the side of the Israeli government and Hamas.

In a statement, the Palestinian Islamist movement said it considered “positively what was included today in the speech of the American president”. This plan, presented by Joe Biden as an Israeli initiative, divides the political class of the Jewish state and threatens the survival of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government coalition.

Why did Joe Biden present this plan?

Joe Biden’s unexpected speech on Friday evening took many observers by surprise, and not only by its timing. The plan that the elected Democrat detailed was in fact not designed by the White House but by Israel, according to the President of the United States. However, Benjamin Netanyahu’s first reaction was rather cool, with the Israeli Prime Minister twice reaffirming his “terms” for a permanent ceasefire: the “destruction” of Hamas, the “release of all hostages” And “the assurance that Gaza will no longer pose a threat”.

“It is too early to ensure that this proposal accurately reflects the Israeli position”explains researcher Nimrod Goren, Israel specialist at the Middle East Institute.

“It is not impossible that the Americans made some modifications.”

Nimrod Goren, researcher at the Middle East Institute

at franceinfo

By going to the front line from Washington, Joe Biden is also sending a message to the Americans, a few months before the presidential election. “When we have an exit plan or an initiative, we can put it through a mediator. But here, the president devotes an entire public speech to this roadmap”observes political scientist Hasni Abidi on franceinfo.

Under pressure, Joe Biden wants to give assurances to a part of his electorate who accuse him of pursuing a policy that is too favorable towards Benjamin Netanyahu. “Democratic leaders cannot hold a single event, a single meeting or a trip without being questioned by activists”notes Thomas Vescovi, independent researcher specializing in Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories. “Joe Biden needs results and to demonstrate that his line is the right one. That is to say, continuing Washington’s support for Israel while pushing the war cabinet to review its objectives.he explains.

Is Hamas ready to accept it?

“There are a lot of positive elements. However, we need to see them written down on a piece of paper.”, a Hamas spokesperson told the Qatari news channel Al-Jazeera. However, ithe executive of the Islamist movement mentioned that his organization has not received any official document. For Thomas Vescovi, the Palestinian organization is ready to negotiate. Hamas “plays his political future in this warthat’s why he will refuse to sign a cut-rate deal.”.

The Islamist movement is calling in particular for the release of Palestinian prisoners held in Israel. “It’s a sine qua none condition”observes Thomas Vescovi. In July 2023, the UN estimated the number of these detainees at 5,000. This figure has doubled since the October 7 attacks, according to the Palestinian NGO Addameer, whose data was reported by Al-Jazeera.

But another obstacle could arise, says Thomas Vescovi. Hamas officials demand that deal include “a complete and total withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip”. The two belligerents risk opposing each other on this issue. “For Netanyahu and his war cabinet, it is unthinkable to allow Hamas troops or presence to persist, even in small groups.”specifies Thomas Vescovi.

What would be the political consequences in Israel?

The road map presented by Joe Biden provoked strong reactions in Israel. Two far-right Israeli ministers called for its abandonment and the continuation of hostilities. Itamar Ben Gvir, Minister of National Security, affirmed that his party would “dissolve the government” if the deal was made. Another government figure, Bezalel Smotrich, Minister of Finance, joined him in this revolt. The latter assured that he “will not take not part of a government which would accept the proposed plan”. “We demand the continuation of the war until Hamas is destroyed and the hostages return”he assured on X.

“Benyamin Netanyahu knows that by implementing this plan, he risks losing important partners.”

Nimrod Goren, researcher at the Middle East Institute

at franceinfo

However, the plan could gain a majority in the Knesset, “in case of a vote”, he specifies. Opposition leader Yaïr Lapid, also a former Prime Minister, expressed his support to Benjamin Netanyahu “for an agreement for the hostages if Ben Gvir and Smotrich leave the government”. An eventuality which would mark the end of his coalition.