The French president begins a four-day state visit to China on Wednesday (April 5). The discussions will focus a lot on economic relations, and even more on Ukraine. Objective: to curb the Chinese temptation to further help Vladimir Putin.
“We think it is possible to dissuade them from going further, to prevent them from tilting too much towards Russia”. This is the formula used by a French diplomat. Concrete translation: make the Chinese understand that they should not take the plunge of arms deliveries to Moscow. “We have real reasons to believe that China is tempted to supply arms to Russia”continues this same diplomat, “so we have to make him understand that it would beI quote, a disastrous decision
During his recent trip to Moscow, Xi Jinping displayed himself arm in arm with Vladimir Putin. The two men share the same objective of weakening Western democracies. And the Chinese power participates indirectly in the Kremlin’s war effort, for example by buying Russian oil. As long as it remains there, Westerners say nothing. On the other hand, the provision of information to the Russians, by Chinese satellite images, constitutes a much more sensitive subject. And arms delivery is a red line.
This is the first message that Emmanuel Macron intends to convey to the Chinese president. Incidentally, nothing surprising: China has not crossed this threshold of arms deliveries and does not seem determined to cross it.
The red line of arms deliveries
There is also this peace plan presented by China, a 12-point plan presented at the end of February. He was first dismissed out of hand by the Westerners. On the grounds that it is above all a catalog of great principles. It contains nothing concrete on the settlement of the war in Ukraine. But the tone, over the past few weeks, has changed a bit. In Paris, it is now considered that this plan constitutes a “sort of basis for discussion”. It has also received a fairly favorable reception in several countries of the South. And the text has at least the advantage of recalling the principle of respect for the territorial sovereignty of States. Implied that of Ukraine.
French diplomacy seems to consider it important not to treat these Chinese proposals with disdain. Above all, the Élysée rightly points out that Beijing is undoubtedly the only capital today capable of influencing Moscow. That said, we are entitled to wonder about China’s real desire to play mediators. Moreover, Xi Jinping has still not made contact with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
A tandem with Ursula Von der Leyen
Emmanuel Macron is also taking the President of the European Commission, Ursula Von der Leyen, with him to Beijing. On the one hand, Paris wants to signify that its action falls within the European framework. A way of saying to the Chinese president: we know that you are more powerful than France, but you are not more powerful than Europe. And when you speak to France, you also speak to Europe.
On the other hand, there is undoubtedly between Emmanuel Macron and Ursula von der Leyen a distribution of roles. The president of the commission, who is said to intend to run for the post of Secretary General of NATO, is reputed to be closer to Washington’s positions. So tougher vis-à-vis China, with the long-term objective of economic decoupling. Conversely Emmanuel Macron seems more eager to reactivate economic exchanges with Beijing. This is also revealing of the relationship of the 27 Europeans to China: there is no unanimity on the subject.