“It is very possible that we will reach the peak of the number of cases in the next few days,” said Dr. Theresa Tam on Friday, unveiling new modeling on the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada.
The chief public health officer, however, recalled that “a downward curve can always go up” if there are changes in society, such as the return to class or to work.
Daily hospital admissions, however, could continue to climb in the coming weeks, before falling again in February.
Deputy Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Howard Njoo warned that despite the lower severity of the Omicron variant compared to Delta, “new daily hospitalizations could still exceed historical peaks due to the large number of case”, even with the most optimistic scenario.
“The sudden acceleration of the spread will put enormous pressure on hospitals for several weeks,” causing backlogs in services and the exhaustion of the workforce, added Dr. Tam.
Intense spread
The data suggests that the Omicron wave will peak with between 170,000 and 300,000 actual daily cases, depending on the application of public health measures.
The current national tally shows around 37,530 new cases being reported daily, but these are grossly underestimated as many parts of the country no longer provide lab tests to the majority of the population.
About 28% of the laboratory tests carried out are positive, which means that more than one in four people screened have indeed contracted the disease.
Dr. Tam explained that this high rate of positivity shows that COVID-19 is widespread and that official figures greatly underestimate the true burden of infection in the general population.
On average, 6,779 Canadians end up in hospital each day with COVID-19, including 883 in intensive care. It is also 82 people per day who succumb to the disease.
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This article was produced with the financial support of the Facebook and The Canadian Press News Fellowships.