Is this the effect of the Olympic Games? We were expecting a roller coaster and now France finds itself on a merry-go-round that turns to the rhythm of a bal musette tune. The country was on the verge of a nervous breakdown and suddenly it has returned to calm. At least for a while.
Last week’s appointment of Michel Barnier to Matignon is already one of the most unusual political episodes of recent years. Fifty-eight days to appoint a prime minister is unprecedented, as the equation seemed insoluble. On July 7, the “clarification” sought by the surprise and still unexplained dissolution of Emmanuel Macron resulted in the election of a National Assembly divided into three irreconcilable blocs and without an absolute majority.
The New Popular Front (NFP) may have claimed victory – some would go so far as to call it “historic”! – but this bloc bringing together La France Insoumise, the Socialists, the Communists and the Ecologists had in reality come out of this election in rather poor shape. The number of its deputies (193) was hardly an illusion. Not only was it constantly on the verge of breaking up, it was also the most isolated of all, with no possibility of an alliance with any other.
With 7.4 million votes for the left against 6.3 million for the center and 12.5 million for all rights, the left has rarely been so weak in France. In addition, its deputies were elected thanks to a massive transfer of votes from the center and the right. This is why the proposal of a government led by Lucie Castets never had the slightest likelihood.
Not to mention that fighting the abominable “extreme right” of the National Rally (RN) is not a program. Far from it. With an increase in spending from 180 billion to 230 billion euros, that of the NFP would have plunged France (whose deficit is double the average of other countries in the euro zone) into a crisis similar to that experienced by the British at the end of 2003, not to mention Greece in 2009.
What then of the socialist Bernard Cazeneuve, representative of the old social-democratic left? Disowned by his own party, the man represented only himself since this well-dressed and respectable left has today become marginal, to the point of submitting body and soul to the revolutionary rhetoric of a Jean-Luc Mélenchon and his compromises with anti-Semitism.
So that left the right. Normal, you might say, since the French have never been so right-wing and they keep repeating, poll after poll, that purchasing power, security and the fight against immigration are their priorities. The feeling of appeasement in recent days is largely explained by the fact that the new prime minister seems much more in tune with the country’s heartland on these issues… and a few others. He “is not the type to make the Republican Guard wiggle on the Pont des Arts to the rhythm of Aya Nakamura’s nonsense,” academic Jean-Marie Rouart quipped in The Figaro.
If the former European Commissioner and Brexit negotiator appears to be the man for the job, it is also because his first task will be to get a difficult budget adopted, and to go and negotiate in Brussels a restructuring of the French debt. This former Minister of Agriculture also seems best placed to face the anger of farmers that could manifest itself again this autumn.
It is said in the hands of the National Rally. This is both true and false. First, what could be more normal than a prime minister without a majority (The Republicans only have 47 elected representatives) having to negotiate with the leading party in France? Because, if the RN was excluded from Matignon, it increased the number of its deputies by 50% and finds itself, something unprecedented, in the position of kingmaker.
As political scientist Jean Petaux explained on the Atlantico website, “the stigmatization of the RN as being a party outside the “republican arc” no longer makes any sense. […] When the sum of votes collected by candidates carrying the label of a party, whatever it may be, whatever its program and ideas, exceeds 11 million votes, one would have to be totally blind to say that this party is outside the political game and that it is anti-democratic.” Especially since the elected representatives of the RN remain the most respectful of the institutions.
At the same time, this circumstantial alliance is a risky game for the RN. The appointment of a government that would truly tackle the scourges of insecurity and mass immigration could alienate middle- and upper-class voters who have begun to rally to it. Let us not forget that Michel Barnier, after having been a convinced pro-European, had created a surprise in the right-wing primary by proposing nothing less than a moratorium on immigration and a “constitutional shield” to guarantee the primacy of national law on these issues. At a time when even Germany is closing its borders, is a French surge possible?
One thing is certain, there is a long way to go between the cup and the lips. Isn’t that what Nicolas Sarkozy promised in 2007 before suffering a bitter failure and seeing the popularity of the RN skyrocket? The roller coaster is never far away.