Cyber threats aimed at influencing election results are becoming increasingly common globally — and foreign activities will most likely attempt to influence Canada’s next federal election, scheduled for 2025.
The Canadian Center for Cyber Security’s new report released Wednesday reveals that foreign operations will likely use online disinformation and generative artificial intelligence (AI) to target Canadian federal elections over the next two years.
The new report, however, does not present any data on the number of cyberattacks specifically targeting elections in Canada in recent years. In a press briefing in Ottawa on Wednesday, the report’s researchers said no cyber threat activity was detected during the 2021 federal election, but that recent global trends reflected the risk for years to come.
Misinformation, which has already become pervasive during the national elections, could be exacerbated by the blocking of Canadian news on certain platforms in response to the Online News Act. Since this summer, Meta has permanently blocked access to news on its social networks in Canada.
“We believe that, in the absence of news from Canadian sources, young Canadians are likely at much greater risk of being exposed to misleading news content, which could be part of broader disinformation or influence campaigns” , we can read in the report.
In addition to disinformation campaigns, the use of generative AI to create and propagate false content is increasingly common. The capacity to produce this content has notably been accelerated due to its accessibility through large technology companies such as Meta, Google and OpenAI.
Generative AI can produce various types of content, including text, images, audio, and video, sometimes called “hyperfakes.” This synthetic content can be used in influence campaigns to secretly manipulate online information and, at the same time, influence the opinions and behaviors of voters.
Recent example: Pro-Russian cyberthreat actors used generative AI to create a fake that features Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announcing Ukraine’s surrender following Russia’s invasion of the country.
“We believe it is very likely that foreign adversaries or hacktivists will use generative AI to influence voting in Canada’s upcoming federal elections,” the report’s researchers write.
Interests of Russia and China
Although the majority (85%) of cyberthreats occurring in 2022 are not identified with specific countries, those with ties to Russia and China continue to account for most election-related cyberthreat activity foreign countries since 2021.
The report finds that Russia has been consistently responsible for observed cyber threat activities interfering in foreign elections since 2016, and cyber activities have been attributed to China every year since 2015, with the exception of 2017 and 2021 .
The next European elections in 2023 and 2024 could thus be an important target for Russia due to the importance of Europe’s military and economic aid to Ukraine.
Cyber threats linked to democratic processes represent a growing scourge on a global scale. The proportion of electoral processes targeted by cyber threat activities more than doubled between 2015 and 2022, from 10% to 22%.
Last year, just over a quarter (26%) of all national electoral processes worldwide were affected by at least one cyber incident.