What will be the financial cost of the pension reform, the cost of this new text, resulting from the joint joint commission, composed of seven senators and seven deputies, since it is this copy which will be applied, if the reform goes as far as at its end.
One of the main objectives displayed by the government in this reform is the balance of our pay-as-you-go pension system. The scenario of the COR, the pension orientation council, on which the executive relies, expects a deficit of around 13.5 billion euros in 2030.
At the same time, the pension reform was to bring in 17.7 billion, on a similar horizon, 2030. Once the system is in equilibrium, there remains in theory 4.2 billion. A kitty which was to be used to finance the compensatory measures supposed to attenuate, ever so slightly, the effect of the extension of the contribution period, and the decline in the legal retirement age.
Except that the list of compensations has since grown. Starting with the accommodations made for all those who started working early; they will be able to retire before the legal retirement age. This is called the long career scheme, and it was eventually extended to those who started working before the age of 21. It was 20 years at the start.
Another measure that costs a little money: this 5% surcharge on retirement pensions granted to mothers, provided that they have all their quarters at 63 years old. A pension supplement which compensates, according to the executive, the loss of part of the benefit of the quarters acquired for maternity, before this reform.
How much is the bill now and how to finance it?
These modifications cost several hundreds of millions of euros. How much exactly? Difficult to say, several estimates circulate. 700 million is the figure put forward by the executive, and it is perfectly financed according to the government, via a sleight of hand with an increase for the employer in old-age contributions, offset by a reduction in contributions relating to accidents at work, above all not to increase the cost of labour. To this must be added increases in levies on conventional terminations.
So much for the theory. In practice, according to a very good connoisseur of the file, it is extremely complicated to make macroeconomic projections on the estimated cost of such a reform in seven years, on a subject as sensitive, complex and personal as retirement.