(Ottawa) Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and now India. The list of countries with which Canada is at odds grew again last week. The diplomatic standoff that broke out with New Delhi will have serious consequences.
Obviously, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau must have had credible and solid information in his possession to declare in a solemn tone, Monday, in the House of Commons, that agents linked to the Indian government were allegedly involved in the murder of a Canadian of Sikh origin in June.
CBC reported Thursday that Canada allegedly obtained communications between Indian diplomats stationed here about the murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, who was shot dead by two masked men in the parking lot of the Sikh temple he led in Surrey, near Vancouver, British Columbia.
In an interview with CTV on Sunday, the United States Ambassador to Canada, David Cohen, confirmed that the Five Eyes intelligence services provided information to the Canadian government about possible Indian involvement in that case.
Hardeep Singh Nijjar had been in New Delhi’s crosshairs for several years. Indian authorities accused him of engaging in terrorism activities due to his campaign for the creation of “Khalistan”, an independent Sikh state in northern India.
The Prime Minister’s accusation, which was vigorously denied by the Modi government, shook chancelleries across the planet. It forced Canada’s traditional allies to choose sides. In some capitals, this causes a serious dilemma due to the geopolitical, economic and military importance of India, a democratic country. This explains why Britain, Australia and, to some extent, the United States have been reluctant to jump on the bandwagon of those demanding rapid and unequivocal answers from India.
Since Monday, many have been wondering why Justin Trudeau chose to make public the suspicions weighing on the Indian government. Daily life The Globe and Mailwhich embarrassed the Liberal government with its hard-hitting reporting in the spring about China’s foreign interference activities during the 2019 and 2021 federal elections, was preparing to publish a lengthy text reporting on the role played by the Modi government in this assassination on Canadian soil.
The daily had informed the Prime Minister’s office on Sunday about the delicate information it intended to reveal, thanks to confidential sources from the Canadian Security Intelligence Service. After a difficult spring, it appears that Justin Trudeau wanted to face the blows this time by informing Canadians himself through an official declaration in the Commons.
Strategy compromised?
Barely 11 months ago, Canada announced its new Indo-Pacific strategy, hailed by many observers as a necessary diplomatic shift to deal with China’s growing influence.
As part of this strategy, presented in Vancouver by the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mélanie Joly, the Trudeau government was banking heavily on a rapprochement with New Delhi to counterbalance Beijing.
“The growing strategic, economic and demographic importance of India in the Indo-Pacific region makes this country an essential partner of Canada,” we can read in the thirty-page document.
“Canada and India share a tradition of democracy and pluralism, as well as a common commitment to the rules-based international system and multilateralism. The two countries also wish to develop their mutual commercial relations and the already strong interpersonal ties which unite them,” it is added.
Canada thus intended to strengthen its ties by negotiating a free trade treaty with India, by creating a Canada-India office within the Trade Commissioner Service, by speeding up the processing of Canadian visa applications in New Delhi and in Chandigarh, and supporting exchanges in education and research, among others.
“India’s strategic importance and leadership, both within the region and internationally, will only increase as India, the world’s largest democracy, becomes the country the most populous on the planet and that its economy will continue to expand. Canada will seek new opportunities for partnership and dialogue in areas of common interest and values, including security and the promotion of democracy, pluralism and human rights. »
By ensuring a greater presence in the Indo-Pacific region, Canada wanted to follow in the footsteps of its closest allies, notably the United States, Germany, France and the United Kingdom.
Since Monday, most of this strategy has been in limbo. Negotiations aimed at concluding a free trade agreement are suspended, to the dismay of Canada’s business community.
Such a treaty would increase bilateral trade by $8.8 billion per year by 2035, according to calculations by the Business Council of Canada. India is Canada’s tenth largest trading partner today.
Reactions from both sides
Diplomatic staff have been reduced on both sides. India has issued an advisory advising its nationals not to travel to Canada for security reasons. The Indian government subsequently suspended the processing of visa applications in Canada.
PHOTO ATUL LOKE, THE NEW YORK TIMES
Billboard promoting study in Canada in Jalandhar, Punjab state
As of 2018, India has been the leading source of international students attending Canadian universities. In 2022, there will be around 320,000 Indian students, or almost 40% of all foreign students. They therefore represent an important source of funding for universities.
Put in the dock, India reacted strongly. And this could be just a taste of the medicine that the Modi government intends to serve in Canada.
After his electoral victory in 2015, Justin Trudeau declared to the rest of the world: “Canada is back. » He would never have imagined that this “return” would be marked by tensions with so many countries. A victory for Donald Trump in the American presidential election in November 2024 could add to the country’s diplomatic misery.