Should Elisabeth Borne remain Prime Minister after drawing article 49.3 of the Constitution? The question agitates the macronie, split into two camps: those who plead for his departure and those who want his maintenance.
“Chao Babeth.” It has not even been two hours since Elisabeth Borne drew article 49.3 of the Constitution, Thursday, March 16, to have the pension reform adopted without a vote in the National Assembly, that the first messages calling for her resignation flowed into reporters’ phones. “How to leave her, frankly…”, writes this macronist, who pleads for “spring cleaning”. In office for less than a year, the Prime Minister faces her first major political crisis, to the point of emerging weakened. And to doubt his majority, yet under the spell since his arrival at Matignon.
The use of 49.3 on this major text, which arouses broad opposition from the French, indeed sounds like a disavowal of the strategy of “consultation” of Elisabeth Borne, which did not bear fruit. He also asks the question of her future when she is personally committed to this highly contested project by Emmanuel Macron. Interviewed on the set of TF1 Thursday evening on her maintenance at Matignon, the former Minister of Labor kicked into touch, simply recalling having “engaged [s]has responsibility for the text”.
“The reorganization at all levels is essential”
His entourage is a little more prolific. “We do not project ourselves on the future. She knows that she is passing through because she is Prime Ministerwe assure you. His personal destiny is not the point.” The rest is indeed the motions of censure which will be examined by the National Assembly on Monday. That filed by the Liot group should bring together widely, without winning enough votes at LR to be adopted. “There are fewer people at LR who want to bring down the government than to embarrass it”, asserted, a few days ago, an adviser to the majority.
The probability that the government will resign on Monday is therefore very low. But the executive remains feverish in the face of the risk of overflows on the ground, after the incidents of Thursday evening. As proof, Matignon passed the instruction to suspend all travel by ministers “in the coming days”. “No information. Zero. It sucks. We’re left hanging in the air”annoyed a ministerial source, who doubts the fate of the head of government: “The future of Borne is written in dotted lines.”
In the majority, the speculations multiply. “He says to himself that we will not see her spend the summer. Her days are numbered and we will have to turn the page of this episode”, delivers a Renaissance deputy, in favor of a departure of the Prime Minister.
“The Borne valve will be used, it is a shock absorber.”
A Renaissance MPat franceinfo
“Although I very much appreciate Elisabeth Borne, the reorganization at all levels is essential. It must be the first stage of a democratic and political renewal”says another member of the majority. “It is indeed his strategy of alliance with LR that has failed”presses another.
Elisabeth Borne did not manage to snatch a majority of votes at LR, despite the deal made with the leaders of the right, Eric Ciotti, Olivier Marleix and Bruno Retailleau. “The Prime Minister gave in a lot on the text for a very bad resultsighs a Renaissance deputy. In the end, the majority ends up with a right-wing reform without the voices of the right. Result: a significant proportion of deputies from the presidential camp think Elisabeth Borne “too weakened to still be able to govern”says a majority source.
“She Must Stay”
Despite the political situation, the head of government retains fierce supporters, who do not want to see her leave. “She must stay”, asserts the Renaissance president of the Law Commission, Sacha Houlié, without saying more. “We are united behind and we continue to support her because she is carrying out important reforms for the country, and then we are not going to let her go when the situation is difficult”details Renaissance MP Pieyre-Alexandre Anglade. “We are ready to continue with her. She has shown that she can hold on, this was the case again yesterday in the hemicycle“, adds his colleague Stella Dupont.
Others are even more strategic. “Does it give us additional leeway if we change Elisabeth Borne? I think not”believes a member of the majority.
“Some try to incriminate him – especially at the Elysée – but we must not show that we are giving in to the streets either.”
A ministerial adviserat franceinfo
And the same to warn: “Beware of the Cresson trauma.” On April 4, Elisabeth Borne will exceed the duration according to the only other Prime Minister of the Fifth Republic, Edith Cresson, who remained in Matignon for 323 days, between May 1991 and April 1992. The symbolic date is fast approaching and some have it in mind. “Rumor has it that they would like to hold it a little beyond Edith Cresson’s mandate”slips a parliamentarian from the majority.
But to put in whose place? “The substitute bench is not crazy either”smiles a ministerial adviser. “It’s going to be a big question. Do we put someone who is not in the current political game for the novelty effect, or do we take a minister like Darmanin, but who does not have a consensus in the majority either?”, asks a Renaissance MP.
In addition to the absence of an obvious alternative, another element could save Elisabeth Borne, at least in the short term: “It’s not the president’s psychology to move under pressure”notes a ministerial adviser. “The more tension there is around her, the more Macron might want to keep her”, smiled another. The head of government is suspended, but it could still last some time.