The Libyan political crisis has been going on for 10 years, since the fall of dictator Mouamar Gaddafi. Libya is on Friday November 12 the subject of an international summit in Paris, co-chaired by Germany and Italy. Russia will follow the situation closely in this country which is synonymous with tension with Turkey.
For Italy, Libya’s political and economic stability is essential
The President of the Italian Council, Mario Draghi, participates in this summit. Most of the migrants who land on the Italian coasts in Lampedusa or in Sicily come from Libya and Italy has been seeking for years to control these refugee flows since the Arab Spring in particular, when Tunisians then Libyans and many migrants sought to leave their countries. At the time, Libya was Italy’s main ally in the Mediterranean. Libya, one of the few Italian colonies until the end of World War II. After the fall of Colonel Gaddafi the country fell into chaos. Since then, Italy has signed more or less controversial agreements with Libya to fight against criminal organizations of smugglers, but Italy also has important economic interests in Libya with the exploration and export of gas and oil. The Italian company ENI is the leading foreign producer in Libya. The country’s economic stability is therefore essential for Italy, both to contain migration and to earn money with natural resources.
Italy therefore seems on the same wavelength as France. But that was not the case when Matteo Salvini was in power. The period has changed a lot. Matteo Salvini, at the time Minister of the Interior, three years ago, accused France without citing it, of course, but no one was mistaken. The far-right leader accused Paris of endangering the stability of the region for its own economic interests. At the time, the fighting intensified in the city of Tripoli and for Matteo Salvini, the intervention of France, with NATO in 2001 then the fall and the death of Gaddafi, was responsible for the current situation and in particular flows of refugees leaving the country to reach Europe via Italy. This is still the case today, but Matteo Salvini is no longer in government and cooperation is much better between Mario Draghi and Emmanuel Macron in North Africa. Rome, Paris and Berlin say they are on the same line to strengthen the weight of Europe in Libya in particular!
Libya, land of confrontation between Russia and Turkey
Russian President Vladimir Putin is not participating in this Paris summit, but he has sent his foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov. Libyan territory, for Russia, is also a field of confrontation with another power in the region. Russians and Turks have each chosen their camp in Libya. When the Russians militarily support Marshal Haftar, the strongman of eastern Libya, Turkey has deployed troops in the country to the government established in Tripoli. Last year, when Marshal Haftar’s troops, supported by Russian mercenaries, were very close to retaking the Libyan capital, the intervention of Turkish military advisers and especially drones manufactured by Ankara were decisive and enabled the government Libyan people to keep control of Tripoli. Today, we are in a kind of frozen conflict where everyone stands on their positions.
One of the objectives of the Paris conference is to obtain the departure of foreign troops from Libya, and in particular the Russians and Turks. It will not be easy because Ankara does not seem in a great hurry to initiate the withdrawal of its forces and on the Russian side it is even more complicated because Moscow says it has nothing to do with the presence of several thousand mercenaries of the Wagner Group, a private security company, which officially does not exist in Russia but which is in several theaters of operations where the Kremlin is advancing its pawns. This is also the case in Mali. Thursday evening November 11, the camp of the marshal announced despite everything that it was going to repatriate 300 foreign mercenaries at the request of France but we do not know their nationality.
Especially since the Russians and Turks do not only have military objectives in Libya. There are also economic objectives. Libya has Africa’s second largest oil reserves. Last year Turkey signed an agreement with the Libyan government to conduct oil exploration. And then there are also diplomatic objectives. Russians and Turks sometimes play a double game. They clash in Libya, but also sign military cooperation agreements. The Russians notably delivered anti-aircraft missiles to Turkey. They could soon build warships and planes together. Turkey may be a member of NATO, but it can be on the same line as Moscow when it comes to upsetting Washington, and Russia, of course, never fails to seize this kind of opportunity.