The Ministry of the Economy, which unveiled its economic forecasts on Thursday evening, confirms that the government intends to bring France’s deficit below 3% by 2027, as announced by Emmanuel Macron during his campaign.
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The government is preparing for this: for 2023, it expects a slowdown in the economy, with growth forecast at 1.4% (after 2.5% in 2022), inflation still high at 3.3% and a public deficit that would stagnate at 5% of GDP, due to the context “uncertain”, linked in particular to the war in Ukraine and the situation in the United States and China. But according to the forecasts that the Ministry of the Economy published on Thursday July 21, growth should then accelerate to 1.6% in 2024, 1.7% in 2025 and 2026, then 1.8% in 2027.
In these same forecasts, Bercy confirms that the government intends to bring France’s deficit below 3% by 2027, as announced by Emmanuel Macron during his presidential campaign. The Ministry of the Economy foresees in particular that public expenditure will increase, in volume, by 0.6% per year on average over the five-year period, which would “the lowest rate of increase for twenty years”. The average increase is 1.2% per year over the last ten years. “We reaffirm the serious budgetary of France”, with “a recovery of public accounts which is one of the priorities of our majority”defended Minister Bruno Le Maire to the press.
To achieve its objective, the government wants to concentrate the effort on the State, with a 0.4% drop in expenditure over the five-year period on average per year, and on local authorities which will have to reduce their operating expenditure by 0, 5% over the period. On the other hand, he envisages an annual increase of 0.6% in social spending, in particular to finance the health system.