Is a Third World War brewing?
Outrageous and alarmist just two years ago, such a question is no longer completely absurd at the end of 2023, even if the answer remains: “Probably no. »
But, on the sidelines of the two major wars of the last 21 months, potentially worrying alignments are looming on the geopolitical horizon.
In a magnificent column entitled “The “us against them” inevitably signals the beginning of obscurantism and blindness” (The worldOctober 31, 2023), the Lebanese-Egyptian writer Dominique Eddé wrote:
“What is now widely received in the West as an attack of barbarism on civilization, block against block, is in reality the terrible outlet of horror when all other outlets have been blocked. » What follows, according to her, is the generalization of “rage, hatred and bad faith” in reactions to these events.
Between the two possible attitudes — “Them against us, fight to the death” or “Let’s try to understand what’s going on in each other’s heads; let us fight against the hatred that devours us; let’s find a viable compromise” — unfortunately it is the first approach that has the wind in its sails.
For example, we can emphasize that supporters of support for Israel, or at the very least of a balance between Israel’s desire to exist and that of the Palestinians to no longer be humiliated, are found mainly in the democratic world of the North (West, plus some Latin American and Asian states).
Conversely, current active support for the Palestinians — and even explicit support for Hamas — is found more in a “global South” dominated by dictatorships. A South which takes advantage of the contradictions of the West (between rulers and civil societies) to announce the end of its hegemony: this is for example the Russian-Chinese discourse.
Certainly, in Western societies, often against the choices of their governments, in recent weeks we have seen demonstrations of support for the Palestinians — including on campuses in the United States. Demonstrations where the use of the word “genocide” becomes commonplace in the face of the bloody destruction inflicted on Gazan civilians: almost 10,000 You are in four weeks (according to apparently credible figures provided by Hamas-affiliated health authorities).
Who supports Israel? At the official level: United States, Canada, all of Europe, plus: India, Australia, Japan, South Korea, some countries in Latin America (Argentina) and Africa. Countries where pluralism and freedom of expression generally exist — despite attempts to ban pro-Palestinian demonstrations in France and Germany.
Who denounces Israel, the United States and “imperialism”, while more or less supporting Hamas? Iran, Turkey, Venezuela, Algeria, Tunisia, Syria, Afghanistan… with, not far behind – despite their language precautions on October 7 and 8, in the face of the initial horror in Israel – China and Russia, who present themselves as duo as a “bulwark against imperialist chaos”. Here is a beautiful string of “democracies” and “free expression” societies to which we can entrust the restoration of order in the world!
Certainly, to point out this fact is to sacrifice, ever so slightly, to the logic (denounced above) of “them against us”. Of the opposition, bloc against bloc, of “barbarism (anti-Semitism, Islamofascism) against civilization”.
This is indeed a simplification and unfair, because a form of fascistic terrorism is also found on the Israeli side, for example in the massacres of civilians in the West Bank by hordes of Jewish extremists, with the aid and encouragement of so-called “forces of order”.
So, North against South, China-Russia-Iran against the decadent West, in a preamble to a Third World War? Not so fast! First, if we look closely at the so-called new alignments, we find lines that are not so clear… and a lot of contradictions.
For example, the BRICS are presented as a new counter-power opposed to Western diktats. But countries like India and Argentina, members of BRICS, today strongly defend Israel. Russia itself very recently had good relations with the Jewish state (Putin and his “buddy” Netanyahu). In this heterogeneous group, two dictatorships (China and Russia) claim to set the tone, but Argentina and India remain democratic countries until further notice.
Then, in the internal diplomacy between these “Big Ones” who embody and exploit hatred of the West – because anti-Israeli vehemence is also an anti-imperialist cry and an anti-Western spasm – we find contradictions galore. . Between China, Russia, Iran – let us add Turkey, fourth of these three musketeers – we find many rivalries, mistrusts and Jarnac coups. Before “making friends”, Putin and Erdogan fought in Syria. China views Russia as a potential vassal. Turkey is a member of NATO… but supports Hamas!
Nevertheless, and notwithstanding the just revolts of Mme Eddé, it is disturbing to see the extent to which dictators, torturers and regional imperialists, who often have their own “Palestinians” whom they crush (Uighurs, Kurds), are today resuming their virginity, once again donning the old mantle of Palestine and “anti-imperialism”…
François Brousseau is an international affairs columnist at Ici Radio-Canada. [email protected]