the fear of the extension of the conflict in Sweden and Poland

Sweden announces its biggest military aid plan to kyiv since the start of the war, and Poland reiterates that it is ready to provide soldiers. Both fear a Russian victory.

Support for kyiv does not waver in northern European countries, such as in Sweden. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was in Stockholm on Friday May 31, 2024 to sign a bilateral security agreement with Norway, Iceland and Sweden. The country has just committed to delivering the equivalent of 6.5 billion euros in military aid over the next three years. The Nordic countries fear a victory for Vlodimir Putin and an extension of the conflict in the Baltic Sea, where Russia already operates in the gray zone, testing and provoking its neighbors.

Poland, kyiv’s biggest supporter since the start of the war, hopes to continue helping its neighbor push back Russia. During the last NATO meeting in Prague, Friday May 31, Poland recalled that it was ready to make Polish soldiers available, in the event of a possible dispatch of NATO troops. The country also fears a Kremlin victory and announces a plan to strengthen the border with Belarus and the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, worth nearly 2.4 billion euros, which should be ready for 2028.

Sweden: 6.5 billion euros in military aid

Sweden, which for 200 years, as a matter of principle, did not sell arms to a country at war, is today one of the most generous countries. She has just committed to delivering a sixteenth package of military aid to Ukraine. The biggest since the start of the war and the equivalent of 6.5 billion euros in military aid over the next three years. This is a very large envelope, which should help kyiv plan its defense over the long term, it includes the donation of a reconnaissance radar plane and air-to-air missiles intended for the future F-16 fighter planes that should receive Ukraine soon.

On the other hand, to the great dismay of Volodymyr Zelensky, Sweden will not provide Gripen, flagship of the Swedish Air Force, these small versatile fighters, easy to maintain, capable of landing almost anywhere. Ukraine is asking for them, but the other coalition countries have reportedly asked Sweden to wait. Regardless, Sweden, and all those Nordic neighbors for that matter, are okay with their weapons being used by Ukraine to hit Russia, there’s no debate about that.

Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Norway, all the Nordic countries are now members of NATO. As President Volodymyr Zelensky never fails to remind them when he visits, the fear of the Nordic countries is that if Russia wins in Ukraine, it could extend the war. And expanding the war means attacking the small Baltic countries (Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia or Finland). All the Nordic countries would then find themselves, in fact, drawn into a regional conflict, since the Baltic Sea would become a zone of confrontation and NATO troops would pass through their territory. It is this worst-case scenario that they want to avoid at all costs, which is why they have made Ukraine’s victory an existential question.

Militarily, the situation seems rather calm in the Baltic Sea, especially since part of the Russian forces in the region have been sent to the Ukrainian front and NATO has significantly increased its presence at sea. But the Baltic is a space where Russia operates in a gray zone, tests its neighbors and provokes with hybrid threats, that’s what the Nordics think.

There was the explosion of gas pipelines, suspicions of spying on underwater and oil infrastructures, stories of GPS jamming. And the latest, two weeks ago, was this information according to which Russia would consider unilaterally modifying its maritime borders around Saint Petersburg and Kaliningrad. Information denied by Moscow. Two days later, the Russian army removed, in the middle of the night, around fifty navigation buoys from the river which marks the border between Estonia and Russia. This type of thing worries the Nordics, they generally respond with restraint, for fear of slipping and therefore of a potential escalation of tensions in the Baltic Sea.

Poland ready to provide soldiers

And why not with Polish weapons? The head of diplomacy, Radosław Sikorski, confirmed that he had not given any restrictions to Ukraine on the use of its weapons. If the great American ally authorizes it, Poland sees no contraindication. But Poland wants to go further to push back Vladimir Putin’s Russia, which it fears so much. During the last NATO meeting in Prague on Friday, Poland first recalled that it was ready to make Polish soldiers available in the event of a possible dispatch of NATO troops.

But what’s new is also that it is considering training a Ukrainian unit on its territory, because if the member countries of the European Union are wondering whether or not to send trainers directly to the field, Poland will do it on his land. She therefore plans to form a Ukrainian unit with men of conscription age. But there aren’t really any details on that. It is not known whether these are refugees who arrived after the start of the war. We also do not know who will be involved in this unit, as it is currently only a project.

Poland continues to help Ukraine, but it is also preparing itself. At the moment, the saying that best suits Poland is “if you want peace, prepare for war“. The country inevitably fears being next on Vladimir Putin’s list, if Ukraine were to fall. While the country faces more and more attempts at Russian sabotage on its territory, Warsaw is becoming active Last week, Poland revealed details of its plan to strengthen the border with Belarus and the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad. It includes minefields, bunkers, anti-tank obstacles, satellite surveillance, in short, all the paraphernalia to try to disgust the Russian army and prevent them from invading Poland. It is a huge investment plan of almost 2.4 billion euros which should be ready for 2028.

Until then, Poland is campaigning within the European Union to invest in modern defense and create real European military cooperation. This is also one of the only campaign arguments, one week before the elections for the European Parliament: a strong Europe, which protects the borders in the east and prevents Russia from pointing the end of its guns.