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Why invest in the lithium-based battery sector when interesting advances are underway in semi-solid calcium-based batteries? Wouldn’t it be wise for the CAQ to review its investment strategy in order to avoid betting on lithium battery technology whose future seems uncertain?
Real Bilodeau
The governments of Quebec and Canada are granting tens of billions of dollars in subsidies to develop the battery industry, particularly in the Bécancour industrial park in Quebec.
They rely on lithium-ion batteries. And it is true that new technologies are emerging, particularly in the area of possible calcium-based batteries. Are we betting all our chips on the equivalent of the Beta video cassette format, at the risk of seeing VHS overtake us in the detour? (Younger children who don’t understand the analogy can ask their parents.)
After digging into the question, it seems unlikely to us.
“Research and commercialization are two different things,” summarizes Gregory Patience, professor in the department of chemical engineering at Polytechnique Montréal.
The expert emphasizes one fundamental thing: “Today, lithium works. We also know how much the industry is struggling to meet the demand for electric cars. Dealership showrooms are empty and you have to wait months or more to get your hands on such a vehicle.
The demand for lithium-ion batteries is therefore great and is likely to be so for many years to come.
Other technologies such as calcium, for their part, are under development.
Developing takes years. And we’re not talking about two or three years. We are talking about decades.
Gregory Patience, professor in the chemical engineering department at Polytechnique Montréal
It is true that calcium is much more abundant on Earth than lithium. In theory, it can also contain a greater energy density. Professor Gregory Patience explains, however, that the challenge remains to use this energy. In particular, it is necessary to find the right materials to build the anode, the negative pole of the battery, as well as an electrolyte in which the electric charge can travel.
“Fluoride-based electrolytes are currently being studied, but fluoride is very toxic. There are studies being done, but it’s not established,” he said.
The expert also invites us to look at the immense infrastructures that are developing everywhere on Earth to support the lithium-ion battery industry. This ranges from mines to battery assembly, including factories that produce lithium hydroxide for the cathode and those that refine graphite for the anode.
The investments are colossal and the risks of all of this collapsing in the short term seem low.
It should also be noted that while subsidies are important in the establishment of the battery industry in Quebec and Ontario, private companies are also betting big.
The future Bécancour cathode manufacturing plant, for example, is a joint venture between Korean materials giant POSCO and automaker GM. The latter will be the end customer of the batteries, and one can think that GM knows the automobile market quite well.
That being said, predicting the future is not an exact science and we are never safe from a surprise. THE New York Times recently reported that China is betting big on batteries in which sodium would replace lithium1.
It is also possible that batteries based on different technologies will appear on the market for certain applications, without dislodging lithium-ion batteries.
New research developments should therefore be followed with interest, but the lithium-ion battery has not said its last word and seems to still have a bright future ahead of it.