(New York) Jon Tester was one of the few Democratic senators to publicly call for Joe Biden to withdraw from the race for the White House. Now, after seeing the president grant his wish, the Montana congressman has become the only one in his camp to refuse to endorse Kamala Harris as his presidential candidate. So what is going on with this 68-year-old politician who continues to farm his grandfather’s land?
The issue goes far beyond Senator Jon Tester, who will seek a fourth term on November 5.
It concerns the future of the United States, where the upper house of Congress has a say in passing laws. So if Kamala Harris enters the White House, but Jon Tester returns to Montana, the new president will have a hard time implementing her agenda through legislation, even if her party regains the majority in the House of Representatives.
Because the Democratic majority in the Senate may be down to the Big Sandy farmer’s seat. Democrats currently control 51 of the 100 seats in the upper chamber. And they have already given up hope of holding onto the seat of West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, who is retiring after becoming an independent.
But after the rise of Kamala Harris to lead their party’s presidential ticket, they believe they can successfully defend their seats in the key states of Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, as well as in Ohio, an increasingly red state where Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown remains popular.
But Montana is a different story. After a long history of electing senators and governors from both parties, this rural Western state has become “Trumpified” in recent years.
In 2020, Donald Trump beat Joe Biden by 16 percentage points. Jon Tester, meanwhile, has never won more than 51% of the vote in the state’s Senate race.
And the Democrats’ image hasn’t improved in Montana since his last election victory six years ago. Hence his (questionable) decision not to endorse Kamala Harris, who nevertheless instilled hope and enthusiasm within her party following Joe Biden’s withdrawal.
“A guy from Montana in Washington”
On the day the vice president accepted the Democratic nomination as presidential candidate in Chicago, Jon Tester gave two reasons for his refusal to comment on the presidential election.
“First of all, I’m focused on my race,” he said at a news conference in Montana. “Secondly, people want to nationalize this race, when this isn’t about national politics, this is about Montana. This is about making sure we have a Montana guy in Washington who represents Montana values. That’s why.”
Tester offered two other reasons for his decision not to attend the Democratic convention in Chicago in person. He said he wanted to help harvest crops on his farm and attend a concert that rock band Pearl Jam was scheduled to give in Missoula in support of his campaign.
The incumbent senator from Montana is facing Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL who is making his political debut. The 37-year-old entrepreneur from Minnesota has lived in Montana since 2014 and has the support of Donald Trump.
PHOTO RICK BOWMER, ASSOCIATED PRESS ARCHIVES
Republican candidate for senator from Montana Tim Sheehy with Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Bozeman in early August
Ignoring Jon Tester’s efforts to distance himself from Kamala Harris, he rightly points out that the incumbent senator himself encouraged the California Democrat to run for a Senate seat in 2016.
“The fact that Jon Tester didn’t attend Kamala Harris’ coronation at the Democratic National Convention won’t hide the fact that he launched his political career by recruiting her for the United States Senate and votes 95 percent of the time for her radical agenda,” Tim Sheehy told Fox News Digital.
“Heads or tails”
As chairman of the Senate Veterans Affairs Committee, Jon Tester has cultivated a bipartisan approach over the years. He has also been critical this year of the Biden administration’s handling of the U.S.-Mexico border.
But his decision not to endorse Kamala Harris could backfire by dampening the enthusiasm of Democratic voters he needs to secure re-election.
On the other hand, he may be helped by the holding of an abortion referendum in November in Montana. Voters will be asked to decide whether to enshrine in their state constitution the right to abortion until the fetus is viable or to protect the health or life of the mother.
More or less reliable polls give the Republican candidate the advantage. Experts at the Cook Political Report, for their part, estimate that the outcome of the race will be decided by a “toss of a coin.”
Could Democrats maintain their Senate majority by offsetting the loss of Jon Tester’s seat with a gain in another state? Florida and Texas are the two most commonly mentioned states where they could pull off an upset. But Republican Sens. Rick Scott and Ted Cruz remain favorites to win in their respective states.
The future of the Senate – and of the United States – could therefore be decided in this state where the outgoing Democratic senator has refused his support for Kamala Harris.