The COP15 fiasco in Copenhagen

In December 2009, COP15 brought together delegations from 193 states. The main objective is to negotiate an international agreement that can replace the Kyoto Protocol. But this climate conference of the parties will be a failure.

It is December 17, 2009. Nicolas Sarkozy, then President of the Republic, gives an offensive speech to say the least at the UN climate conference in Copenhagen. COP15 brings together delegations from 193 states. The main objective: to negotiate an international agreement which can replace the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012. A new, more ambitious protocol is needed, which also includes commitments from the countries of the South.

Nicolas Sarkozy does not know it yet, but this COP15 will be a failure. A resounding failure because the expectations were enormous. “Posters announcing ‘the last chance to save the planet’”, remembers Paul Watkinson, negotiator for the French delegation. The objectives were jostling, he says, it was necessary “move forward on the climate and on the coordination of action” in developed countries, “involve the Americans who had left the process” at the time of the Kyoto Protocol agreement, a few years earlier, and also “start to fully involve the major emerging countries” like China, India. “So there were concrete objects, but in trying to do everything, we set the bar too high”he regrets.

The stakes were enormous, not only for the climate, but also for Denmark. Denmark is then considered the model country in terms of ecology, which had succeeded in reconciling economic growth and environmental protection. And it is also about showing that a small Nordic country, through the strength of its diplomacy, can deliver to the world a major agreement, as Norway had with the Oslo Accords, 16 years ago. But the pressure on the Danish government is very significant. Too important, perhaps. The Danes were a little overwhelmed by the importance of the conference. Welcoming Barak Obama, thousands of people arriving in queues sometimes lasting hours in the snow. Moreover, Denmark not only wants to facilitate the negotiation, it also wants to hold the pen. During the first draft of the text, the countries of the South, the African countries in particular, were upset at not having been consulted and considered that the text was calibrated for Western countries. From there, a detestable climate will settle over the conference. The negotiation is slipping and getting bogged down. As the minister responsible for the event later wrote: “It took us two years to build a relationship of trust, and it only took a few hours to destroy it.”

To reach an agreement, there remain significant divisions, both between the countries of the South and the industrialized countries, but also between China and the United States, in particular on the question of the constraint associated with emission reductions. As science historian Amy Dahan explains: “When Obama arrives in Copenhagen in 2009, we hope that the world will change and that it will be extraordinary. And ultimately, what happens? Well, he behaves exactly like Bush. He has the same position. It will, in a way, relegate Europeans to their subordinate place, it was a humiliation for the Danish presidency.” He is trying to get along with the Chinese who are very clever and surround themselves with other major emerging countries.

They had now taken control and there was no longer any question for them of accepting international agreements being imposed on them by Western countries. Chinese President Wen Jiabao refused to meet Barack Obama, who had nevertheless arrived on Friday morning. Exasperated at being snubbed by his Chinese counterpart, the American president decided to force the door of a meeting, only to find the Chinese leader in full discussion with his Indian, Brazilian and South African counterparts. And it is there, in this five-party meeting, that the fate of COP15 will be sealed. They conclude a minimalist agreement: the objective of a maximum increase in the global average temperature of 2 degrees by 2100, and on some financing for adaptation. And immediately Barack Obama returned to Washington, not without holding a press conference to announce that there was an agreement.

For Danish Prime Minister Rasmussen, it is humiliation. The countries of the South refuse to adopt a document that they consider “illegal” and negotiated in secret, in defiance of all the rules of multilateral negotiations. The final session is stormy. The delegates shout. Several countries are opposed to the agreement, and there can therefore be no agreement: the assembly simply takes note of the document. COP15 ends in a total fiasco, with a 24-hour delay.

It is the following COP, in Cancun in Mexico, which will put the train back on the rails. But it will still take five long years before we manage to conclude an ambitious agreement, in Paris in 2015. But if the Paris Agreement was possible, it is above all because we were able to learn the lessons from the failure of Copenhagen.

“Climate failures”, a franceinfo podcast by François Gemenne in collaboration with Pauline Pennanec’h, produced by François Richer, broadcast by Thomas Coudreuse. A podcast to be found on the franceinfo website, the Radio France application and several other platforms such as Apple podcasts, Podcast Addict, Spotify, or Deezer.