Since Geneviève Guilbault’s victory in Louis-Hébert on October 2, 2017 paved the way for the CAQ’s triumph a year later, a by-election has taken on the value of an oracle.
François Legault immediately saw it as “a message to all of Quebec” and a decisive turning point. “Imagine: if it is possible to take Louis-Hébert, it is possible to take almost all the ridings,” he said.
There had already been 14 by-elections since the Liberals returned to power in 2014, and the performance of the PLQ had been on average 4 points better than what had been projected from the most recent polls carried out across Quebec. .
Admittedly, the circumstances of Sam Hamad’s resignation had left a bitter taste for many Liberal activists in Louis-Hébert, and the disastrous withdrawal of the candidate initially chosen, Éric Tétrault, due to allegations of psychological harassment and intimidation , had not helped matters.
From there to think that her replacement, Ihssane El Ghernati, would get 20 points less than what had been projected, there was however a margin. Nor was it foreseeable that this thaw would be followed by a general rout of the PLQ in the general election of 1er October 2018, when it suffered the worst defeat in 150 years of history.
It was customary to say that voters took advantage of a partial to “send a message to the government”, without necessarily disavowing it. The Lévesque government had lost the 10 by-elections held during its first mandate, which did not prevent it from being re-elected easily in 1981, recovering in passing two ridings lost during by-elections and another where it had never won. .
In December, CAQ strategists said they were convinced that the election in Marie-Victorin would be a mere formality, which prompted the Prime Minister to want to call it “after the holidays”.
More than two months have passed, all the candidates criss-cross the constituency, but the starting shot, which the opposition demands in unison, will not be officially given until “in the coming weeks”. In other words, when the last health restrictions have been lifted and life has resumed a more normal course.
The projections of the Qc125 site give a slight advantage to the CAQ over the PQ, but the memory of Louis-Hébert remains present in people’s minds. We no longer talk about the easy victory anticipated in December.
Last week, the CAQ began to inquire about media needs in anticipation of next fall’s campaign. By making the engines roar with quite unusual precocity, we obviously want to include the partial in Marie-Victorin in the dynamics of the general election.
Barring an unexpected epidemiological turnaround, voters in Marie-Victorin will be the first to express the post-COVID mood and new concerns of the population at the ballot box.
After two years during which question period in the National Assembly was practically monopolized by the management of the pandemic, the opposition parties have nothing left but for the misdeeds of inflation, which worries 86% of Quebecers. , according to a recent Leger poll.
Since the beginning of the week, their interventions have essentially focused on the rise in the cost of living, the housing crisis, the vertiginous rise in the price of groceries and gas, Hydro-Québec rates, etc The pandemic already seems to be a thing of the past. In the hot seat for a year and a half, the Minister of Health, Christian Dubé, no longer interested anyone.
Finance Minister Eric Girard has indicated that his next budget, the last of his mandate, which will be presented on March 22, will include measures aimed at mitigating the effects of rising inflation which will benefit a greater part of population than those announced in last fall’s update.
Of course, this will not be enough, but what is devoted to it will necessarily have to be taken elsewhere. Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois is already worried about seeing the fight against climate change relegated to the background. He’s not wrong. Among 18-34 year olds, who are generally more aware of it, 45% say they have cut back on the quality of their food in recent weeks.
When filling the refrigerator and paying the rent or the mortgage, or even finding a home, is problematic, environmental protection suddenly becomes less urgent.