The Canadian | The attack is still looking

By dint of repeating that the Canadian had, on paper at least, a respectable attack and a miserable defense, it is as if everyone had convinced themselves that each game would end in a score of 6-5.

Simon Olivier Lorange
The Press

The reality, however, is quite different. Despite the injuries that afflict its veterans and the inexperience of its rookies, the defense, although imperfect, is holding up. On the other hand, at the other end of the rink, it is thin. Very thin, even. This translates not only into a meager number of goals scored, but also into a deficiency in generating attack.

The expected goals indicator gives an idea of ​​the state of health of a team in attack or defense by evacuating the impact of goalkeepers. This is a mathematical projection of the number of goals that should be scored in light of the quality and direction of the shots.

As this statistic varies slightly according to the specialized sites consulted, we established the average between the measures of Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick. It should also be mentioned that the small sample of matches played so far taints the rankings somewhat. The general trend is nonetheless clear.

The Canadian thus finds himself at 25^e rank out of 32 teams with 2.24 goals expected per 60 minutes of five-on-five play. In terms of quality scoring chances, it’s even worse: just 7.41 per 60 minutes, at 31^e circuit rank, according to Natural Stat Trick. For reference, the median values ​​in these two categories, for the 2021-2022 season, were 2.44 and 10.81 across the NHL.

When asked about negative elements of their game, some players naturally tend to suggest nuances of point of view. However, regarding the Canadian’s inability to generate quality chances, Nick Suzuki and Jonathan Drouin both spontaneously agreed.

“We have to do better readings and have more control of the puck,” Suzuki said Saturday morning, a few hours before the duel against the Dallas Stars.

“When you force plays in the neutral zone, you lose the puck,” he continued. In fact, after six games, the Canadian is third in the league for turnovers.

Drouin, after the game, for his part pointed out that he lacked “guys at the net” to deflect shots fired by defenders or jump on returns. “We need to create more traffic,” he concluded.

Experienced

The Canadiens, however, rely not only on a large number of experienced forwards, but on elements that are – or have been – effective contributors to the NHL.

Sean Monahan, Mike Hoffman, Evgenii Dadonov and Brendan Gallagher are all former 30-goal scorers. Josh Anderson has already scored 27, and Drouin has twice reached 50 points. Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield, both in their early twenties, are already the club’s attacking powerhouse.

Nevertheless, so far, the sauce does not really take. So much so that the search for effective and durable combinations continues. Jake Evans concedes the “chemistry” has yet to be found. According to him, the return of the injured Joel Armia and Juraj Slafkovsky to the line-up will give his coach more options.

A look at St. Louis’ main combinations confirms the varying success of the experiments conducted during the club’s first six games.

Four attacking duos have so far played at least 35 minutes five-on-five. In absolute terms, Suzuki and Caufield’s is the one that has generated the most expected goals, but it’s also the one that has cost the most defensively: for each quality scoring chance they have obtained, the opponent had three. However, things are much better since we added Sean Monahan to them rather than Josh Anderson.

Monahan is definitely having a positive effect, as it was the duo he formed with Kirby Dach that was the most prolific on his team. Maybe not in actual results (a single goal), but in terms of puck possession and scoring chances, this alliance has been dominant.

Among the most stable lines (at least 28 minutes at five against five), that of Christian Dvorak with Gallagher and Dadonov was reliable defensively, but generated little attack. It is quite the opposite for that of Kirby Dach with Anderson and Drouin. The Stars’ fourth goal on Saturday night betrayed the shortcomings of this unit in its zone.

Before the game, St. Louis welcomed an improvement in some areas, but said he still expected his men to be more “selective” in their decision-making in order to “stretch the time in the offensive zone”.

“The game speaks to us all the time,” he recalled. In fact, the Canadian has controlled the disc much more in his last three games (52.8% of shot attempts) than in the first three (45.5%). The same trend was seen in expected goals and quality scoring chances. These are all steps in the right direction.

Once this file is settled, we will talk about the numerical advantage, good 31^e of the NHL. We still have plenty of time.

Next game: the Canadiens will face the Minnesota Wild on Tuesday night in Montreal.