The time for promises is over, and the time for taking stock has not yet arrived. The CAQ government is between the two. At the most perilous moment of his mandate, that of the execution of his numerous reforms.
In health, the new agency will soon take office. In education, the reform was adopted. The plan to double the size of Hydro-Québec is also known, as are the massive investments of public funds in the battery sector. In public transport, the Mobilité Infra agency project should soon be adopted. In housing, the strategy was made public in August, without new funding. Construction professions have also been decompartmentalized to speed up construction sites. And homes for seniors as well as 4-year-old kindergartens are struggling to be built at the planned pace.
If custom is respected, a ministerial reshuffle is expected at the beginning of next year. The government will obviously propose other projects between now and 2026. But the most substantial has already been announced. The time has come to finish the job.
Two years is a short time. And this delay is not the only obstacle. There is also ambient pessimism.
Last winter, after a difficult parliamentary session, the watchword in Quebec was “discipline”. No more boondoggles like the subsidy to the Kings and the seasonal flip-flops on the third link. This government was going to stop being its own worst enemy, they promised.
Even if the Caquistes did not have a sparkling spring, their fall in the polls has at least stopped.
When we compare ourselves, we console ourselves, but we also worry.
Elsewhere in the world, the mood of citizens is gloomy. Justin Trudeau is uniting the dissatisfied against him, French President Emmanuel Macron is having a hard time and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has also been losing support for three years.
In Australia, no less than seven prime ministers have succeeded each other since 2007. In the United States, during the last five mid-term elections, the president had an approval rating below 45%, the worst streak in years. 1950. And in the United Kingdom, the new Prime Minister Keir Starmer has lost 45 points in the polls since July, as summarized in a recent analysis of the Financial Times1.
To complicate matters, the CAQ government will land its reforms in the midst of budgetary tightening. Zero deficit must be achieved by 2027-2028. A target that was conveniently postponed until after the next election campaign.
Even as various pressure groups complain about a lack of money, spending has surged. The Legault government will no longer be able to distribute checks. He will have to learn to make choices. The word “efficiency” – at the heart of the CAQ discourse in opposition, but rather neglected since 2018 – will come back to the forefront.
The renegotiation of collective agreements in education is complete. We have high hopes for employment contracts with nurses and doctors – especially general practitioners.
In Quebec, no one expects a spectacular improvement in public services by 2026. The hope is to show more modestly that the situation is improving little by little.
In health, the use of private agencies has been halved this year – which is in fact equivalent to a return to the 2022 level. Their gradual abolition promises to be delicate in the regions. Bills under study will reduce the paperwork imposed on doctors and authorize other professionals to provide care. The ultimate objective remains to improve access to the front line by focusing on family medicine groups. But in the current system, the First Line Access Counter (GAP) remains a good idea which has not fulfilled its promises.
In education, the assignment of tasks went better during the last school year. The addition of aids to the class is also welcome. The new collective agreement could reverse the decline in registrations in teaching faculties – provided, says Bernard Drainville, that we break with the negative discourse on the profession. Moreover, the results of young Quebecers on international tests remain enviable.
As for daycares, the Caquistes are pleased to have added 19,000 places to the subsidized network, in addition to having started work on the equivalent of 18,000 places. The fact remains that access remains deficient.
Although the number of children on waiting lists has fallen by 3,000 since last year, some 34,000 names are still on it.
The Legault government seeks to accumulate these small gains and publicize them. The goal: to appear competent. At least, more than the other parties.
François Legault believes he has another card in his game: nationalism. For the protection of French, here again, most of the measures have already been announced. In francization, the budget has tripled since 2018. But demand is growing even faster because of immigration. At an annualized rate, demand in the first quarter was twice as large as the previous year, the ministry said.
Quebec has reduced the allowances offered to students. His reasoning: Since nearly 40,000 people are on the waiting list, this incentive is no longer necessary. Regardless, the French lose out.
More than ever, the Prime Minister will talk about immigration. A trend that is observed in a multitude of other countries, moreover. But Mr. Legault suffers from his double talk. On the one hand, he urges the federal government to quickly reduce immigration. On the other hand, it barely reduces the number of temporary workers under its control. It’s hard to imagine that the Trudeau government will go further than him.
So what’s new to expect on the identity front? The answer could come from the report that will be tabled this fall by the committee to increase Quebec’s autonomy. Mr. Legault is trying to clarify his autonomy, this middle ground between the uninhibited referendum approach of the Parti Québécois, the details of which will be announced before the next election, and the federalism of the Liberal Party, which will have a new leader by the summer.
In 2018 and 2022, Mr. Legault took on these two parties with a speech focused on nationalism and the economy. It remains to be seen whether next time he will repeat this split, or whether he will instead be crushed in the vice.
1. Read the analysis of Financial Times (in English; subscription required)