Controlled prices for certain foods or tax cuts for businesses? Mass expulsions of migrants or quotas for asylum seekers?
Everything will depend on the choice of American voters on November 5.
“I can’t think of a more important election,” Michele Ramsey of Penn State Berks University in Pennsylvania said in an interview. We’ve heard it a million times, and it’s true: democracy is on the ballot. »
For the specialist in communications and gender studies, a certain basic neoliberal vision is common to both parties, but the greatest contrast lies in respect for the institution.
We have seen in the past that Donald Trump is capable of putting aside fundamental democratic principles, and that is a huge difference between the two candidates.
Michele Ramsey of Penn State Berks University
Each camp highlights the opposition of the personalities and actions of the two candidates. And to convince voters to vote massively for them, political groups hammer out proposals touching on themes likely to unite citizens.
PHOTO TOM BRENNER, THE NEW YORK TIMES ARCHIVES
President Joe Biden
“It’s a very unusual election this year, with Joe Biden withdrawing,” says Jonas Nahm, associate professor at Johns Hopkins University, joined in Washington.
The short campaign between the two presidential candidates – by American standards – encourages them to prioritize subjects that could mobilize the electorate, he adds. Hence the little attention paid to health, for example, the cornerstone of the Democratic program in 2020, or even to the environment.
The portfolio
For the majority of Americans, the priority issue remains the cost of living. This is why Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are trying to establish themselves as the best choice for their portfolios.
PHOTO SCOTT MCINTYRE, THE NEW YORK TIMES ARCHIVES
Kamala Harris promises to ban price increases deemed “abusive” for food products.
The current vice-president intends to put in place a measure to prohibit price increases deemed “abusive” for foodstuffs. She has not revealed exactly how she would achieve this — whether by determining a price range for certain products, as is the case in Quebec for milk, or in another way.
Donald Trump called the proposal “Soviet-style price controls.”
Economists have expressed doubts about the effectiveness of such a measure in a context like that of recent years, where the increase in prices has more to do with global problems in the supply chain than with excessive thirst. of profits. Bills are not likely to drop as soon as such a law is adopted.
For his part, Donald Trump wants to lower business taxes from 21 to 15% and impose customs tariffs of at least 10%, and around 60% for products from China. A move that could lead to higher inflation as well as an economic slowdown, experts have warned — the opposite of the desired result.
Although he reiterates the importance of the economy, Mr. Trump’s plans are not very detailed, notes Mr. Nahm.
The migrant question
Migrants, particularly those who enter the country without using official ports of entry, also concern voters. The path of newcomers could become more complicated in 2025, but in a different way, depending on the elected candidate.
For the first time in 19 years, a majority of Americans, or 55%, want a reduction in immigration, according to polls carried out by Gallup, the last of which dates back to mid-July.
“Immigration is generally not a national issue,” emphasizes Lina Newton, associate professor at Hunter College in New York. It tends to be more local. Typically, it’s behind concerns about health, jobs, and education. »
The subject has gained national importance due to the high number of interceptions at the border, in particular.
Trump’s base tends to be whiter, more male, more nationalist, more conservative. And immigration is a good way to encapsulate people’s fears about the economy, about their sense of well-being.
Lina Newton, associate professor at Hunter College
A speech far from unusual in American history, notes Mme Newton, but now taken up by leading candidates on the national scene.
Undocumented immigrants
Currently, there are an estimated 11 million people living in the United States without legal authorization, according to statistics from the Department of Homeland Security and the Pew Research Center.
PHOTO ARIANA DREHSLER, THE NEW YORK TIMES ARCHIVES
Donald Trump’s running mate, JD Vance
Donald Trump has promised a “mass expulsion” of undocumented immigrants. His running mate, JD Vance, said the operation could “start” with the expulsion of 1 million people. The promise might be difficult to implement legally and administratively, but it would not be unprecedented: Operation Wetback (an offensive term sometimes used to describe Mexicans living in the United States), under President Dwight Eisenhower, led to the expulsion of some 1 million people to Mexico in the 1950s.
As for her, Kamala Harris would like to return to the parameters contained in the bipartisan bill rejected by the Senate in February 2024. The project planned, for example, to refuse any request for asylum made by migrants who arrived in the country through immigration points. unofficial entry, if there were more than 4000 interceptions per day for a week.
While awaiting an initial verification of their asylum claims, migrants who arrived in the United States outside official ports of entry would also be detained. This would be a way of convincing migrants to use official channels, the candidate insisted.
“This is not necessarily a pro-immigrant bill, even though she tries to portray it as such,” said Tabitha Bonilla, associate professor at Northwestern University in Evanston.
Despite all the electoral promises, presidents are not all-powerful and depend a lot on Congress, which could still be very divided after the election…