Turkish President Erdogan is leveraging the shifting power dynamics in Syria following Assad’s potential ousting. With a history of supporting opposition forces and hosting millions of Syrian refugees, Erdogan aims to facilitate their return while countering Kurdish militias. Despite Turkey’s distancing from the Islamist group HTS, its influence in Syria is expected to grow, enabling better negotiations with Russia and Iran. Stability is crucial for refugee repatriation, particularly to cities like Aleppo, as Turkey invests in Syria’s reconstruction.
Erdogan’s Strategic Moves in a Changing Syrian Landscape
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been transparent about his support for the opposition against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Just days before the significant shift in power, Erdogan expressed hopes that the rebels would reach Damascus, marking a new chapter in the Syrian civil war. Following Assad’s ousting, Turkey appears poised to capitalize on the evolving situation.
A Complex Relationship and Evolving Goals
At 70 years old, Erdogan has navigated a tumultuous relationship with Assad, characterized by a notable friendship that soured dramatically after the civil war erupted in 2011. Once vacationing together in Turkey’s Bodrum, Erdogan has since labeled Assad a “murderer,” actively supporting rebel factions and accommodating over three million Syrian refugees within Turkey’s borders.
The influx of refugees has intensified political pressure on Erdogan domestically. His two primary objectives in Syria now seem more attainable in the wake of Assad’s fall: facilitating the return of displaced Syrians and diminishing the power of Kurdish militias, particularly the contentious Kurdish autonomous region in northeastern Syria. Despite Erdogan’s aspirations for normalization, Assad’s previous rejections left Turkey frustrated.
The offensive against Assad was spearheaded by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a move Turkey officially distances itself from, although local observers suggest Ankara may have provided tacit approval.
As a NATO ally, Turkey has long backed the Syrian National Army (SNA) against Assad, including military assistance, while Assad received significant backing from Russia and Iran. Although HTS is classified as a terrorist organization in Turkey, experts indicate that it has collaborated closely with SNA rebels and Turkish military forces, raising questions about the future dynamics of this relationship.
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan acknowledged Turkey’s awareness of the ongoing developments in Syria, while analysts suggest a history of Turkish support for HTS. However, as HTS seeks greater autonomy, the extent of Turkey’s influence may diminish.
According to Ömer Özkizilcik from the Atlantic Council, Turkey is likely to emerge as the most influential foreign player in Syria, leveraging the current landscape to negotiate more effectively with Moscow and Tehran. He also posits that a U.S. administration under Donald Trump, focused on withdrawing troops from Syria, would need to collaborate with Turkey.
Erdogan’s vision includes establishing a “security corridor” along the border to house refugees and counteract Kurdish militias, whom Turkey views as affiliates of the banned PKK. The recent power shifts have enabled Turkey-backed rebels to gain ground against the YPG, with reports indicating that they have captured the strategic city of Manbij, prompting maps on Turkish television illustrating pro-Turkish control along the border.
Stability remains a critical concern for Turkey as it seeks to facilitate the return of refugees. The success of various rebel groups in forming a cohesive governance structure will be pivotal. Relations between HTS and Kurdish factions are especially fraught, and a unified plan for Syria that includes Kurdish rights is essential for fostering relative security.
Expert Özkizilcik emphasizes that security in Syria is crucial for encouraging refugees’ return, noting that Aleppo, a city with the necessary infrastructure, could serve as a destination for many who have fled. Given that a significant number of the three million Syrian refugees in Turkey hail from Aleppo, Ankara is already signaling its commitment to invest in Syria’s reconstruction.
While some refugees are eager to return, a large-scale movement is not imminent. Many have established lives in Turkey, with their children enrolled in schools, and the EU’s financial support for Turkish refugee efforts is expected to remain stable. However, should chaos return to Syria, the potential for a new wave of refugees could arise, prompting Turkey to focus on providing for them within the border region.