(New York) February 16, 2022 is not just a date on the calendar. During a videoconference with his Western allies last week, Joe Biden said Vladimir Putin could choose this Wednesday to invade Ukraine.
Posted at 6:00 a.m.
Does this mean that the American president will look crazy if the day passes without Russian soldiers making the slightest incursion into Ukrainian territory?
” No ! exclaimed William Pomeranz, Russia specialist at the Wilson Center think tank, on Tuesday.
“Up to a certain point, yes,” replied Michael Kimmage, historian of relations between the United States and Russia.
SPUTNIK PHOTO, VIA REUTERS
Vladimir Putin, President of Russia
Obviously, the validity of the warnings that Joe Biden multiplies concerning the Ukrainian crisis is not unanimous among specialists.
But these statements are part of a poker game whose winner is still far from known. And this is even truer the day after Russia announced a partial withdrawal of Russian forces deployed around Ukraine.
Whether the invasion occurs on Wednesday, Thursday or Friday, it makes little difference. The important thing is that Biden highlighted Russia’s actions, so he forced Putin to issue some denials that he probably didn’t want to issue, the most notable being that he didn’t no intention of invading Ukraine.
William Pomeranz, Russia scholar at the Wilson Center think tank
Michael Kimmage is not convinced by this argument. Certainly, he agrees, the White House will probably use it if Russia does not invade Ukraine. But it would be an illusion to believe that the statements of the Biden administration on an invasion on such and such a date have an effect on Vladimir Putin’s plans, according to him.
Information warfare
“The fact that the United States has unveiled its timetable will not weigh heavily in Putin’s decisions,” said this former official in the State Department under Barack Obama. “The two parties are trying each on their side to play the finer points. And it’s possible that Putin provided the US government with misinformation about an invasion to confuse. »
Certainly, Joe Biden deviated from the approach Barack Obama took with Vladimir Putin during the crisis that led to the annexation of Crimea in 2014. In a recent article, the New York Times noted that US intelligence had blocked the Obama administration from releasing to the public what they knew of the Russian president’s intentions at the time.
In stark contrast, the Biden administration is quick to declassify information about alleged Russian plans that go further than just the date of an invasion. In particular, she accused Russia of wanting to justify military action in Ukraine by using fake videos.
“I don’t have a contact within the CIA to know at what point the CIA gave the green light to the release of this information, but I will say that this transparency put Putin on the defensive, up to a certain point. period,” says William Pomeranz.
PHOTO MIKHAIL KLIMENTYEV, ASSOCIATED PRESS
Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz meet at the Kremlin in Moscow on Tuesday
The announcement of the partial withdrawal of Russian troops deployed around Ukraine came just before the meeting in Moscow between Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who said he was “delighted”.
The Russian president confirmed the withdrawal after the meeting, suggesting that Moscow may be considering a military de-escalation.
Caution in Washington
In Washington, Joe Biden greeted the Russian announcement cautiously.
“It would be a good thing, but we haven’t verified it yet,” the US president said from the White House, referring to the partial withdrawal of Russian troops. “Indeed, our analysts indicate that they remain in a very threatening position. »
While specifying that “an invasion remains a real possibility”, he promised to “give every chance to diplomacy” to prevent it.
Analysts agree with Joe Biden that it is still too early to draw conclusions from Tuesday’s Russian announcement.
“I’m sure many historians and parlor analysts will ask the question, ‘Is Putin wavering?’ We will find out shortly. »
In the meantime, William Pomeranz believes that, in general, Joe Biden is handling the Ukrainian crisis well, an opinion shared by Michael Kimmage.
“So far so good,” says the professor and head of the Catholic University of America’s history department. “Biden has kept the door to diplomacy open. He kept his statements about Putin himself rather moderate. And he made no concessions at the same time.
“In terms of American NATO leadership, Biden has been fundamentally responsible and competent. One can only imagine the difference if a President Trump had been in power at this time. »