Dissensions have emerged at the top of the Israeli state around the post-war scenario in the Gaza Strip, at a time when the government claims to be leading the “decisive battle” there to destroy Hamas.
Entering the 8e months of war, the Israeli army launched ground operations on May 7 in Rafah, a town backed by the Egyptian border on the southern edge of the Gaza Strip, where, according to it, the last Hamas battalions are hiding.
But on May 15, when the offensive was barely launched, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant urged Benjamin Netanyahu to prepare for the post-Hamas era, stressing that “the end of the military campaign must be accompanied by a political action”, publicly opposing the Prime Minister who shortly before had ruled out “any discussion on the future of the Gaza Strip” before “Hamas is annihilated”.
“A government alternative to Hamas will be prepared immediately,” insisted Mr. Gallant, clearly indicating that he would oppose the Gaza Strip being placed under Israeli civil or military administration and calling on Mr. Netanyahu to declare that this will not be the case.
These remarks aroused the anger of government ministers, including Finance Ministers Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir, leaders of two small far-right parties, key players in the government coalition, who called for departure of Gallant.
” Price to pay “
« With Gallant’s criticisms […]real cracks have appeared within the Israeli war cabinet,” said Colin P. Clarke, research director at the Soufan Group think tank, on X.
And, experts warn, unless a replacement is found for Hamas, which Israel considers terrorist, it cannot be defeated.
“Without an alternative to fill the void, Hamas will continue to prosper,” Mairav Zonszein, an analyst with the International Crisis Group (ICG), told AFP.
“If Hamas is left alone in Gaza, of course, it will appear here and there and the Israeli army will be forced to run everywhere,” says Emmanuel Navon, professor at Tel Aviv University.
The United States, Israel’s main military supporter, is also urging Mr. Netanyahu to avoid being stuck, after the conflict, in an endless counter-insurgency campaign. Washington estimated at the end of March that a “revitalized Palestinian Authority” could play a role in “creating the conditions for stability in both the West Bank and Gaza”, Palestinian territories still considered occupied under international law.
An idea brushed aside by Mr. Netanyahu, for whom the Palestinian Authority (PA), driven out of Gaza in 2007 by Hamas and which he accuses of “supporting” and “financing terrorism”, is “certainly not” a option to rule the Gaza Strip.
For Yoav Gallant, “the ‘day after Hamas’ will only exist with Palestinian entities taking control of Gaza, accompanied by international actors.”
“It is, above all, in the interest of the State of Israel” because “the military administration of Gaza would become the main military and security effort” of Israel in the coming years and “the price to pay would be a bloodbath […] as well as a heavy economic cost,” he estimated.
“Heavy” fights
On October 7, Hamas launched a major attack in southern Israel, which resulted in the death, on the Israeli side, of more than 1,170 people, according to an AFP report based on official Israeli data.
In response, Israel launched an all-out offensive on the Gaza Strip, which has already caused a heavy toll of 35,000 deaths, mostly civilians, according to data from the Ministry of Health of the Hamas-led Gaza government.
While Israel says it has begun the “decisive battle” of Rafah, Israeli soldiers have been confronting Hamas fighters again since May 12 in the north of the territory.
However, the army proclaimed in January that it had “completed the dismantling of the military structure” of Hamas in the north. It now admits to carrying out, in Jabaliya, its “perhaps the fiercest” battles in this area since the start of its ground offensive on October 27.
A sign that the “annihilation” of Hamas, one of the objectives of the war, may not be so close. As for the cherished hopes of a truce negotiated in Cairo with Hamas, they vanished with the start of operations in Rafah.
The truce agreement “is at a total impasse” and “Israel is pretending that there is progress”, explains Mme Zonszein. The tensions at the top of the state, “plus the disagreements with the United States and Egypt’s refusal to let aid through” since the Israeli offensive in Rafah, “all this is starting to add up to a lot”, she adds.