Syria | Turkey on the offensive against Kurdish forces

Turkey, which has already launched three military operations in northern Syria from 2016 to 2019, promises to carry out a new ground offensive against the Kurdish forces established in the region.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said on Monday that discussions were underway to determine the size of the military contingent required for this purpose in order to protect the country against possible attacks.

“We have already warned: we will make those who disturb us on our territory pay,” assured the Head of State in an interview relayed by Agence France-Presse.

Ankara maintains that Kurdish fighters from the People’s Protection Units (YPG) in Syria are behind a deadly attack on November 13 in Istanbul that left 6 dead and 81 injured.

Turkish authorities, who have made dozens of arrests, say a woman apprehended in connection with the attack received her orders in Kobani, the Syrian stronghold of the YPG, which Turkey considers close allies of the YPG. “terrorists” of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

Denials by Kurdish forces

Both the PKK, which has been engaged in an armed struggle against Turkish power for 40 years, and the YPG have denied any responsibility in the affair.

Their denials were dismissed out of hand by President Erdoğan, who gave his approval to an air offensive that targeted dozens of PKK and YPG positions on Sunday before discussing the ground offensive.

A limited number of the positions hit were in northern Iraq, but most were concentrated in northeast Syria, where Kurdish forces have been autonomously managing a large territory adjacent to the border for several years.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said on Monday that the strikes left 35 people dead.

Following its previous ground offensives, Turkey has already obtained the development of a buffer zone several tens of kilometers deep on an important section of the border with Syria. She might now want to expand it further east.

Possible collateral damage among Ankara’s allies

David Romano, a specialist in the Kurdish question attached to Missouri State University, notes that the new operation announced is not without risk, since Russian troops are present on the Syrian side and that the United States retains in the Kurdish region nearly a thousand soldiers.

Russia, notes the analyst, does not seem to want to be overly moved by Turkish expansionist aims and could even seek to take advantage of them politically when it is singled out for its offensive in Ukraine.

“As Turkey is a member of NATO, they might seek to suggest that the organization has double standards and favors its own members,” Romano said.

The attitude of the United States, which had warned Ankara in May against any offensive likely to destabilize the situation on the border, risks weighing heavily in the balance.

Mr. Barkey believes that it was against the interests of the Syrian Kurdish forces to want to orchestrate an attack on Turkish soil since it gives a “pretext” to the Turkish president to launch an offensive.

Political contest in view of the Turkish elections?

Mr. Romano notes that the holding of crucial elections next June is undoubtedly not unrelated to the behavior of the Turkish head of state, who sees his popularity undermined by the economic difficulties that the country is going through.

“The offensive against the Kurds could allow him to restore his image politically by playing the nationalist card,” said Monday an analyst based in Istanbul who asked not to be named.

The possibility of such an offensive was foreseen, according to him, for a long time and is likely to be well received by the Turkish population.

“Turkish newspapers, which have no choice but to reflect government discourse, try to portray Erdoğan as a hero,” Barkey said.