Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are in an even closer race in Michigan and Wisconsin than they were seven weeks ago, according to a new poll from New York Times and Siena College.
The advantage of Mme Harris since early August has been undercut slightly by Mr. Trump’s strength on economic issues, according to polls, a potentially troubling development for the vice president given that the economy remains the most important issue motivating voters.
The race is essentially tied in Michigan, Mme Harris receiving 48% of support among likely voters and Mr. Trump receiving 47%, which is within the poll’s margin of error. In Wisconsin, a state where polls have a habit of overestimating support for Democrats, Mme Harris holds 49% of the vote to Mr. Trump’s 47%.
The polls also found that Mme Harris had a 9 percentage point lead over Mr. Trump in the 2e Nebraska’s congressional district, whose single electoral vote could be decisive in the Electoral College.
THE Times and Siena College also surveyed the presidential race in Ohio, which is not considered a key state for the White House but is home to one of the most hotly contested Senate races in the country. Mr. Trump leads by 6 points in Ohio, while Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown leads his Republican opponent, Bernie Moreno, by 4 points.
Polls found that 80% of black voters in Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio planned to vote for Mme Harris, and 13% for Mr. Trump. And another 7% of black voters said they didn’t know who they would vote for. Although Mme Harris has a huge advantage among black voters, the 80% figure is lower than Joe Biden won nationally four years ago.
In Michigan and Wisconsin, voters were about as likely to say M’s policiesme Harris would help if she said her policies would be harmful: 41% to 40%. But 46% of voters in both states said Mr. Trump’s policies would benefit them.
After the economy, abortion is the second most important issue to voters in Michigan and Wisconsin, with 18% saying it is top of mind, up from 13% in May. When it comes to abortion, Michigan voters favored Mme Harris to Mr. Trump by 20 points and Wisconsin by 13 points.
Mr. Trump’s greatest vulnerabilities concern his behavior. In Wisconsin, 55% of undecided voters cited his behavior, honesty and ability to serve as president as their top concerns. In Michigan, the figure was lower, at 47 percent.
Fewer undecided voters are concerned about M’s personality and temperamentme Harris. Only 10% of voters in Michigan and Wisconsin said his character or judgment was their main concern, while 19% worried about his honesty.
The margin of sampling error among likely voters is approximately plus or minus 4 percentage points for each poll.
This article was published in the New York Times.
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