The latest Léger surveyThe Journal-VAT confirmed what we feel if we have a minimum of political antennas.
The Bloc is taking off in voting intentions because it is becoming a large and welcoming parking lot.
Trudeau gives French speakers hives, and Poilievre acts like someone who doesn’t need Quebec (which is true).
RELAUNCH?
On the Quebec scene, the PQ’s lead remains fragile and is partly due to the fact that it is seen as best placed to dislodge the CAQ.
The CAQ has its feet stuck in cement that has hardened.
It is difficult to see how a worn-out party in the second part of a second term could bounce back.
Lots of sovereignists who had given him a chance returned to the PQ. The illusion of the third way has been shattered against the Canadian wall.
QS is frozen at 15%. It doesn’t move anymore.
Not difficult to understand. The majority of Quebecers see through the media’s complacency towards this party, understand what they are really dealing with, and do not want it.
In the race for the leadership of the PLQ, Denis Coderre discovers that notoriety is a double-edged sword. We may know you… for the wrong reasons.
Would Pablo Rodriguez revive the PLQ?
It depends on what you mean by that.
One of his obvious handicaps is that he drags all the pots and pans from the Trudeau years.
He was there, he took on everything, he defended everything.
This will not be a problem in a PLQ leadership race since today’s PLQ has become a branch of the PLC.
We are among friends.
The PLQ is controlled by its English-speaking and allophone Montreal wing.
For her, Justin Trudeau’s positions, and therefore those of Mr. Rodriguez, are perfectly acceptable and defensible.
The PLQ, with Mr. Rodriguez, would do better than with MM. Coderre or Tanguay and would become competitive again.
We would have an authentic three-way fight with the PQ and the CAQ, and if no one exceeds 35%, the chances are strong of having a minority government, therefore paralyzed.
But for the PLQ to really take off and be able to aspire to form a majority government, it must regain a foothold among Francophones outside the metropolitan region and the Outaouais.
And this is where things would get complicated for Mr. Rodriguez.
First, he should say things about language and immigration that would displease this Montreal wing that controls the PLQ.
Then, he would be reminded of his diametrically opposed positions when he sat in Ottawa.
Blocking
Think about it.
The PQ is in the lead, but carrying a project that the majority does not want.
The CAQ has sold us a nationalist illusion that has become a dead end.
The PLQ is subservient to Ottawa and cut off from French Quebec.
And QS lives in a fantasy world.
This is not going well, my friends.