For the first time, the number of Quebecers subscribing to a video-on-demand platform is down. The exponential growth of recent years ended in 2022. Should this be seen as the start of a decline, or rather a simple stabilization following deconfinement?
“Yes, there is a post-pandemic effect. Many people have subscribed to platforms to pass the time. But there is also inflation, which affects everyone. The first thing people are going to cut is entertainment spending. And that could be a trend that will be felt over a few years, ”notes Bruno Guglielminetti, spokesperson for the NETendances surveys at the Academy of Digital Transformation (ATN).
According to the latest ATN survey, published Thursday, 68% of Quebec Internet users have subscribed to at least one paid video platform in the past year. A slight decrease of 3% compared to 2021.
Netflix is still by far the most popular platform, but its number of users has declined. While 57% of Quebec Internet users had access to Netflix at home in 2021, the study shows that they are now 51%. That’s about the same level as 2020 — and still much higher than 2019, before the pandemic hit, though.
“Netflix is the only loser from declining subscriber numbers. It is the only international platform that suffers losses. All others are gaining subscribers. It shows that there is a segmentation. The competition is getting stronger and people are moving from one platform to another. They understood that they could unsubscribe from one platform and migrate to another. We are no longer at the time not so far away when there was more or less only Netflix, ”underlines Bruno Guglielminetti.
Prime and Disney+ growing
According to him, however, we should not overinterpret these figures and believe that Netflix will soon be overtaken by one of its competitors. “Prime Video takes advantage of people who are already Amazon subscribers. Disney attracts families and plays on its impressive catalog. But neither produces as much original content as Netflix. As long as Netflix produces more than the others, it will remain the first platform, ”argues Mr. Guglielminetti. He notes in the same breath that the number of Netflix subscribers globally started to rise again towards the end of 2022, after a difficult start to the year.
The rate of Quebec Internet users with access to Prime Video has increased from 29% to 34% in the last year; at Disney+, from 18% to 24%. By rallying 14% of them, Crave made an impressive leap of 6% in the space of one year, thanks to the catalog of the American channel HBO.
The reach of ICI Tou.tv Extra and Club illico is down, however, with declines of 1% and 2% respectively. “What harms Tou.tv and Illico is that people know that the original programs that are there are likely to end up next year on Radio-Canada and TVA,” says Mr. Guglielminetti.
Traditional TV holds up
Admittedly, for a second consecutive year, we observe that more Quebecers subscribe to a pay platform than to cable. But roughly speaking, we see above all that traditional TV is resisting. This is one of the conclusions of another study published this week, this one by the Canada Media Fund. We learn that 81% of Francophones in the country had watched live television in the last month, when this survey was conducted this summer.
The curve will not rise again until the economic situation improves
“We have buried traditional television a number of times in recent years. But in the end, we are pleasantly surprised to see that people are finally more attached to it than we thought. I think it’s an offer that is complementary to the platforms, ”says Florence Girot, head of forecasting and innovation at the Media Fund.
“With inflation, people have to tighten their budgets and I have the impression that some will go back to traditional television. The platforms have reached a plateau. And the curve will not rise again until the economic situation improves, ”confirms Bruno Guglielminetti, of the Academy of Digital Transformation.
According to the ATN, nearly a quarter of Quebec Internet users are now subscribers to three or more platforms. The increase in television production, now dispersed over several listening services, inevitably ends up costing consumers dearly. In 2019, barely 4% of Quebec Internet users paid for at least three platforms.