“It’s such a huge victory that you can probably see it from the Moon, and certainly from Brussels!“: he had against him a united opposition, a worried Europe and war on his doorstep, yet, on the evening of April 3, 2022, Viktor Orban triumphed. Thwarting the forecasts, his party won the legislative elections hands down and retained his majority of two-thirds in parliament. Political life is locked, clientelism well established, checks and balances methodically ransacked and the media under orders. The Prime Minister therefore returns for a 4th term, shattering the hope of those who wanted to break with the illiberalism and theconservative revolution”.
The war in Ukraine, and his cumbersome friendship with Vladimir Putin, could have done him a disservice, but he turned it into an asset, transforming his refusal to choose Ukraine over Russia into a campaign argument: peace rather than war. A carrier message in his electorate, like Eva: “I’m a grandmother, I want peace, and that’s why I vote for him, because he doesn’t want to interfere in this war.“
More isolated than ever
On May 24, Viktor Orban further accentuated his grip: the state of emergency, decreed under Covid, was confirmed, in the name of the war in Ukraine. Most of the refugees, received at the start of the conflict, have nevertheless returned to other countries. And, if, as elsewhere in Europe, inflation gallops, the prices of hydrocarbons are contained. Russian gas and oil continue to be purchased at friendly prices. At the European Council, Hungary puts the brakes on gas embargo projects as much as it can and obtains an exemption for oil transported by pipeline. “In the interest of the European Union, Hungary does not block sanctions, as long as they do not cross the red line, namely the defense of Hungary’s security. In other words: as long as they do not threaten our energy security”we heard during Viktor Orban’s inaugural speech, in front of the Hungarian Parliament, on May 16, 2022.
In his country, Orban cries victory, but outside, he is more isolated than ever. Even Poland is turning away from him and reattaching itself to Europe, as a bridgehead of support for Ukraine. Warsaw is patching up with Brussels, while Budapest persists in playing spoilsport. Result: Hungary is today the only country in the EU still waiting for the green light from Brussels for its recovery plan. Some fifteen billion in European subsidies, which Orban absolutely needs to finance his electoral gifts. Paying off politically, but very costly for public finances.