Statistics Canada | Downward revision of the number of asylum seekers in Quebec

With a wave of a magic wand, or rather a statistical one, Quebec, which accounted for 52% of all asylum seekers in Canada, now only accounts for 41%.

Corrected data

Statistics Canada released its estimates of the number of non-permanent residents for the third quarter of 2024 on Wednesday. The agency took the opportunity to revise its figures.

The main change concerns the regional distribution of asylum seekers. According to these new calculations, Quebec actually had 151,000 asylum seekers in the second quarter, and no longer 190,000, as had been announced in July. We are talking about a downward revision of 39,000.

According to third quarter data, the beautiful province now has 163,000 asylum seekers.

“We have made an update on the province or territory of residence of asylum seekers,” explains The Press Julien Bérard-Chagnon, section chief at the Demography Centre at Statistics Canada. “What we are seeing is the effect of this update.”

For several years, Statistics Canada has used the province or territory of the asylum seeker’s intention when filing their application. “Obviously, society is changing, demographics are changing,” notes Mr. Bérard-Chagnon. “We are constantly evaluating our data. So, we took the opportunity to update this.”

Note: Statistics Canada includes in this category asylum seekers, refugee status holders and people whose asylum claim has been refused, abandoned or withdrawn.

Less in Quebec, more in Ontario

On the other hand, the federal agency has corrected upwards the figures for Ontario, which has 31,000 more asylum seekers in the second quarter, compared to the previous data. With this change, the proportion of asylum seekers residing in Ontario increases from 39% to 52% for all of Canada.

These new figures will undoubtedly fuel the debate between Quebec and Ottawa regarding the number of temporary immigrants, including asylum seekers. They seem to support the federal Minister of Immigration, Marc Miller, and his department, who believed that Statistics Canada did not take into account the relocation of asylum seekers and refugees after they filed their applications.

“What we see is that there are certain asylum seekers whose territory of intention was Quebec, and when we look more closely, with the IRCC data [Immigration, Réfugiés et Citoyenneté Canada]there were a certain number who were in Ontario and, to a lesser extent, in Alberta as well,” specifies Julien Bérard-Chagnon.

It’s still increasing

The data published on Wednesday also show that the total number of non-permanent residents (NPR) continues to grow, both in Quebec and in Canada.

RNPs, also known as temporary immigrants, are made up of three groups: work permit holders, study permit holders and asylum seekers.

“The key message is that the number of RNPs continues to increase, but that the increase has slowed significantly compared to the previous quarter,” analyzes the Statistics Canada demographer. “This slowdown in the growth of RNPs is true in Quebec, and it is true in Canada as well.”

Let us recall that in the second quarter, the number of temporary residents reached 597,000 in Quebec, hence the figure of 600,000 used in the public debate. With Statistics Canada’s revisions, this number fell to 551,000 in the second quarter. In the third quarter, it was 588,000, which represents an increase of 11%.

Thus, RNPs represent 6.4% of the 9 million Quebecers. The number of study permit holders remained stable in the last quarter, but the number of work permit holders increased by 9%.

In Canada, temporary residents jumped by 200,000, from 2.8 million to 3 million, on 1^er July. They now represent 7.3% of the 41.3 million Canadians. This is the smallest quarterly increase since the start of 2022.