The Islamic State (IS) group, which has claimed spectacular attacks in recent months, has placed sport in Europe at the heart of its information war, a few months before the Euro football tournament in Germany and the Olympic Games in Paris.
Lucas Webber, specialist in jihadism and co-founder of the specialized site Militant Wire, deciphers in an interview with AFP the communication strategies of IS and its subsidiary in Afghanistan, EI-K, the most capable today today to organize large-scale attacks outside its territory.
If the threats of recent days against the Champions League have not been carried out, the challenge remains, warns the American analyst.
What dynamics does IS communication rely on?
In the wake of Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7, ISIS launched an intense campaign targeting the West, Israel and the Jewish community that worked very well. After the Moscow attack [144 morts en mars]we found a trend observed after the attack in Iran [90 morts en janvier] which exploited this dynamic after October 7. They gave it a whole new dimension, to specifically threaten Russia, in multiple documents published in several languages […]. But they have also used this global media attention to reorient their supporters, their external operations and their incitements to violence against the West, particularly Europe and sporting events, such as football matches in Europe’s largest stadiums. and the next Olympic Games.
How are these messages structured?
Before Moscow, they had shared their projects with us, they had shaped the information space. EI-K has established itself as a new pole, alongside ISIS in Syria, for inciting violence and external operations. [Mardi], they published an image threatening a drone attack. Maybe they’re planning to hit sporting events. Perhaps they want to concentrate European security and intelligence services on the stadiums, while aiming for another type of target, a religious site, a shopping center or a government building. There is a very strong trend […] coming from both central ISIS media, pro-ISIS media and ISIS-K. This is a real challenge for European security services.
Where is EI-K located in this universe?
ISIS’s foundation, Al-Azaim, is highly adept in its intelligence, influence and psychological warfare operations. In addition to telling us what they plan to do and telling their supporters what to do, their goal is to overload the intelligence and security services and instill fear. ISIS-K studied how ISIS, at the height of the Caliphate [2014-2019], was waging his media war. At the time, the spokesperson for IS truly revolutionized its international dimension, its way of exploiting grievances to incite its supporters to violence, of capitalizing on informational warfare. EI-K has learned its lesson.
Is ISIS taking advantage of the momentum of the Moscow attack?
ISIS is not so focused on attacks on Iran, Turkey or Moscow. Rather, they show that they are part of an ongoing series […] to include all branches of ISIS, the entire history of external attacks. They attempt to place them in a broader context of recent, current and future operations. This shows that they want to pursue them. I suspect they are planning attacks and some will probably succeed and be exploited in turn. It is likely that ISIS networks are established in Europe and are planning attacks.