As he does once a decade, the Chief Electoral Officer of Canada has re-allocated the seats in the House of Commons by province to take into account demographic trends. As in 2011, Quebec’s political weight is set to decrease. Inexorably.
In the new distribution, Quebec loses one seat, dropping from 78 to 77 seats, while Ontario gains one, British Columbia one too, and Alberta three. The number of seats in the House of Commons would thus drop from 338 to 342. The formula is somewhat complex, since it takes into account a senatorial provision (never fewer seats than senators for a province), a provision of rights acquired and a rule of representation.
It is not Elections Canada which decides on the final distribution: the federal government can pass a law to modify the rules. This is what Stephen Harper did when the calculation lost three seats in Quebec, from 78 to 75. He introduced this rule of representation which allowed the Quebec population to keep the same number of deputies. It was using a subtle mathematical exercise to avoid a political problem.
The Minister responsible for Canadian Relations, Sonia LeBel, wanted to quickly go up to the barricades. “We are the only francophone province. We have a special status, ”she said. Here then ! A special status: it seems to us that such a status, which we have been talking about since the 1960s, has always been refused in Quebec. “Our specificity in Quebec must ensure that we do not lose a seat in the House of Commons. But even if the “province”, as the minister says, retained the same number of seats, their overall proportion would decline.
There is every reason to believe that Justin Trudeau will want to avoid a predictable political storm. A madman in a pocket. Especially since in 2011, he defended a representation that goes beyond simple mathematical calculation. However, that does not mean that he will commit to maintaining the current proportion of Quebec seats in the House of Commons.
In 1992, the Charlottetown Accord provided that Quebec would retain at least 25% of the seats, which corresponded to the percentage of its population in Canada as a whole. Since then, this percentage has increased to 22.57% and its current representation in the Chamber stands at 23.28%, even though the number of Quebec elected officials in Ottawa has increased from 75 to 78 since 1985.
As it turns out, the proportion of Quebecers in Canada will continue to shrink, at a rate that will increase over the next few years. Because Canada pursues an energetic immigration policy that places it at the top of the countries in the world that receive the most newcomers. It intends to welcome 400,000 immigrants in 2021. To maintain its relative weight, Quebec should admit 90,000 immigrants, 40,000 more than the current threshold. Some in English Canada plead for the reception of 500,000 immigrants per year so that by the end of the century, the country will have 100 million inhabitants.
In the current framework, we can only deviate at the margin of the democratic principle of representation by head of pipe, which has the consequence, despite the occasional procrastination to which we have had recourse, an inexorable weakening of the political weight. an increasingly negligible minority.
Only a form of special status, which Sonia LeBel evokes as if it were a reality, but which is a view of the mind, could change the course of things. However, one can doubt the capacity of the Caquista government, or even its willingness, to negotiate such a concession.