Six months from the midterm elections | Towards an “inevitable” democratic thaw?

(Summit, New Jersey) Are Democrats doomed to lose their grip on both houses of Congress in the midterm elections? Six months before this crucial electoral meeting, this is the prediction of many experts. But the fight is likely to be tight in several constituencies. Especially if the issue of abortion ends up eclipsing that of inflation, found The Press in New Jersey.

Richard Hetu
special cooperation

At first glance, the citizens of Summit, a New Jersey town located an hour by train from Manhattan, do not seem to have to worry too much about inflation and gas prices at the pump. After all, most of them reside in opulent homes and drive fancy cars, including a surprising number of Teslas, a sign of affluence.

But appearances are deceptive. Because even if they live in the 7^and riding in New Jersey, one of the wealthiest in the United States, many Summit voters share the concerns of compatriots much less fortunate than them. And their state of mind, six months before the midterm elections, does not bode well for the party of Joe Biden, whose hold on both chambers of the American Congress is at stake.

“My children are now adults, and I worry about them and their ability to make the most of their income,” says Kathleen Campisano, leaving a restaurant in downtown Summit with her husband, on a Sunday. sunny.

“Everything costs more: gasoline, food, everything,” adds the one who holds the position of general manager of a marketing company in New York.

When asked if the economic situation could weigh on her choice next November, Kathleen Campisano responds with a pout:

Advantage to Republicans

The question is enough to worry Tom Malinowski. In 2018, this former diplomat was elected to the House of Representatives in the 7^and riding in New Jersey, one of the Republican strongholds in the state that had swung to the Democratic camp and contributed to the return of Nancy Pelosi to the presidency of the lower house of Congress.

Four years later, the representative cannot afford to lose any potential voters if he wants to keep his seat and allow the Democrats to protect their slim five-seat majority in the House.

As things stand, most pundits predict that the Republicans will have no trouble wresting that majority from the Democrats. But Benjamin Dworkin, director of the Institute for Public Policy and Citizenship at Rowan University, does not rule out the possibility of a struggle between Democratic and Republican candidates “where every seat is a battleground”.

“And in New Jersey, a very Democratic state in most presidential elections, the seat of Tom Malinowski will give rise to the most contested race for Congress in 2022”, he analyzes.

For now, the Republican Party and its likely candidate in the 7^and riding in New Jersey, Thomas Kean Jr, son of a former governor of the state, enjoys very favorable conditions. On the one hand, midterm elections almost always favor the party that is not in power in the White House. On the other hand, the current unpopularity of Joe Biden reduces the chances of the Democratic candidates to reverse this historic trend.

Inflation or Abortion?

But six months is really an eternity in politics. Future events could change the political game, including the Supreme Court’s eventual decision to overturn “Roe v. Wade” guaranteeing the right of women to abortion.

This right is not threatened in New Jersey, where Democrats control Parliament and the governorship. But this theme could allow Tom Malinowski to attack his Republican rival and mobilize the Democratic electorate.

“If we talk about abortion […] rather than inflation, Tom Kean may have to answer more difficult questions,” says Benjamin Dworkin.

But, until proven otherwise, the rising cost of living remains the dominant subject. “People are worried about inflation right now,” confirms Darren Recupero, chief operating officer of an asset management firm, in an interview outside his home.

If he is not ready to predict that his favorite candidate will win in the 7^and New Jersey constituency – he already voted for Republican Tom Kean in 2020 – Darren Recupero is, on the other hand, convinced that the Democrats will not only lose control of the House of Representatives, but also that of the Senate in November. “It’s inevitable,” he said, referring to the bad mood of the American electorate.

But he admits to being less interested in the midterm elections than in the presidential election of 2024. “I’m worried about 2024,” he said. Who will be at the head of the tickets of the two parties? Biden will be 82 years old. We will see where it will be on the health side. Trump, on the other hand, is crazy. We’ll see if he’ll be a distraction for the party. »

New message

Democrat as he is, Frank DaSilva finds that the age of Joe Biden is already problematic. “I voted for him,” said the student life counselor at a Summit high school, drinking coffee on the terrace of a Starbucks. “He was the only one who could beat Trump. But he’s too old now. »

Frank DaSilva is particularly concerned about what he perceives to be the inability of Joe Biden and the Democrats to defend their achievements, including a $1.9 trillion economic stimulus package that everyone seems to have forgotten about.

But the Supreme Court may help Joe Biden and the Democrats find a message that can save them from an election thaw in November. A message that the president delivered on Tuesday, the day after the publication of the preliminary draft of a decision of the Supreme Court overturning the judgment “Roe c. Wade”.

“If the Court overturns Roe, it will be up to our country’s elected officials, at all levels of government, to protect women’s right to choose. And it will be up to voters to elect pro-choice representatives next November,” he said. Will this be enough to make people forget about inflation and gas prices at the pump? We will know the answer in six months.