short victory for the center-right, surge from the far right… What to remember from the election

Sunday’s legislative elections put an end to eight years of socialist rule.

The center-right opposition won a very narrow victory on Sunday March 10 during the legislative elections in Portugal, ahead of the Socialists who have been in power for eight years. The country, however, is clearly shifting to the right after a new push by populists, according to almost complete results published on Monday. The Democratic Alliance (AD, center-right) thus won 29.49% of the votes, while the Socialist Party (PS) came in second with 28.66% and the far-right Chega party third with 18. 06%.

The vote was precipitated by the surprise resignation in November of outgoing Prime Minister Antonio Costa, who was not seeking a new term. Three months before the European elections scheduled for June 9 in France, this vote confirms that the far right is making progress across the Old Continent, as Italian and Dutch voters have already shown. Here’s what to remember from the results of these elections.

Closer than expected results between the center-right and the socialists

The early elections were called after the resignation of the outgoing Prime Minister, Antonio Costa, in early November. The socialist had been cited in an investigation for influence peddling. The country was one of the few in Europe to be ruled by the left. The outgoing socialist government’s record was tarnished by inflation, dysfunctions in hospitals and schools and a major housing crisis, despite good economic results. Even if the PS recorded its worst score since 2011, the results were closer than the polls suggested. No party managed to obtain an absolute majority in this election marked by the highest participation rate in almost 30 years.

While only the four seats in foreign constituencies have not yet been allocated, the AD, led by Luis Montenegro, 51, won 29.49% of the votes and 79 deputies out of a total of 230. PS, which obtained an absolute majority in 2022 with a score of 41.4%, is now in second position with 28.66% of the votes and 77 seats. “I expect the President of the Republic to appoint me to form a government.”announced Luis Montenegro in the evening. “Despite the minimal difference between us and the AD, (…) we did not win the elections and we will go into opposition”confirmed the socialist candidate Pedro Nuno Santos, a 46-year-old former minister.

A strong surge from the far right

The populist Chega (“Enough”) party led by André Ventura, 41, more than doubled its score by obtaining 18.06% of the vote, compared to 7.2% during the previous legislative elections in January 2022. A fervent Catholic, this former law professor and football commentator is known for his xenophobic attacks against the Gypsy minority. He campaigned by accusing the AD and the PS, who have shared power since the advent of democracy, of being “two sides of the same coin that must be fought”. In terms of number of seats, the party quadrupled its representation from 12 to 48 deputies, thus strengthening its rank as the third political force in the country.

This new breakthrough for the far right comes as Portugal next month commemorates the 50th anniversary of the Carnation Revolution, which ended Salazar’s fascist dictatorship and thirteen years of colonial wars. “Chega asked to become the centerpiece of the political system and achieved this goal”welcomed André Ventura after greeting “an absolutely historic result.” Three months before the European elections, these results are a positive signal for Chega’s European allies, including the Rassemblement national in France and the AFD in Germany. “Congratulations to our friend André Ventura for this beautiful result”welcomed Marine Le Pen on.

The formation of a minority government on track

Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is due to invite the center-right leader to form a government this week, after consultations with political party leaders. The result of the elections does not allow the center-right to form an absolute majority of at least 116 elected officials on its own, nor even in coalition with the small Liberal Initiative party, which came in fourth place with 5% of the vote and eight seats. If André Ventura said to himself “available” For “give a stable government to Portugal” within“a strong majority on the right”Luis Montenegro rejected any collaboration with the far right. “It’s no”he responded to journalists who asked him if an alliance with Chega was possible, reports the Portuguese public media RTP.

This alliance should not be necessary, however. Pedro Nuno Santos thus assured that the PS would not prevent the formation of a minority government. The socialist candidate, however, rejected any direct support for a right-wing government, promising to “renew” his party in opposition, and threatened to vote against his next budget. Thus, faced with the absence of an absolute majority, the country finds itself faced with a risk of political instability. “Without the support of the socialists, it is not certain that the center-right will be able to adopt laws”, underlines the specialized media Politico. Luis Montenegro has promised to reduce taxes to boost growth, while saying he wants to improve public services.

In this context, the President of the Republic, the conservative Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, will undoubtedly be called upon to intervene more, since the Portuguese Constitution assigns him the role of arbiter in the event of a crisis or impasse. But whatever happens, Parliament cannot be dissolved again within six months of its election.