It is to believe that an iron curtain fell between Russia and the West. According to propagandists, Ukraine and the “collective West” now belong to the club of Nazis, Fascists or Satanists. This bellicose rhetoric resonates with the citizens of Vladimir Putin’s country. Despite everything, some Russians persist in keeping a window open between the two camps.
Pink jacket and hair dyed blond, Daniil Orain calmly answers the questions of the Duty. His YouTube channel “1420” has accumulated millions of views since February 2022. He crosses his country from coast to coast, armed with a simple telephone, a microphone and a sidekick, and questions his comrades about the war and their moods.
Do you think the war is going well? Do you hate Ukrainians? Are you ready to be conscripted? Such are the type of questions candidly asked. Responses generally follow the official discourse. “Everything will improve with new territories and new money. “I have no sympathy for Ukrainians. “If I am called to defend my homeland, I will go.” So answer a good number of citizens.
“In Russia now, it is reassuring to support the war. You will feel safe, you will be less stressed if you simply follow the official rules,” notes Daniil Orain. “You can see in some brainwashed people that they are following a leader. They need a strong hand, another person to tell them what is right or wrong. They cannot think for themselves. I think that’s for most people. »
“But some people don’t approve of war,” he says. Several of these citizens express on camera support for their Ukrainian “relatives”. Many ruminate on a pessimism claiming that “things will get worse”. Others outright denounce their president.
Many, however, slip past the camera. And some outright attack the videographer for his audacity.
Not afraid to exercise his freedom of expression, Daniil Orain redirects the qualifier “courageous” to those who answer his questions. “It’s good that we have very brave answers every time. With brave answers like that, other people will see those answers and think that if someone says that, I can say those things too. These people encourage other people to speak openly. »
Dissidents remain rare outside major cities, he notes. “Every time I make my videos, I try to figure out why they’re taking the official line. They say, for example, that there are Nazis, fascists there [en Ukraine]. They repeat what is said on television without questioning it. Maybe it’s because other people in their village have seen something on television and this news is being shared in the community without being questioned. »
According to the young man’s inside view, President Putin is currently winning the airwave war in Russia. “Do you support Putin? Of 100 Russians randomly questioned in Moscow by Daniil Orain, 46 approve, 22 condemn and 32 prefer not to answer.
Public opinion seems well and truly cemented behind the president, according to a more scientific approach. More than 80% of Russians approve of their president today, a fairly stable score since the start of the invasion, according to the Levada Center in Moscow, one of the only credible research institutes on the subject.
Hardening everywhere
In order to better understand what has changed in the lives of ordinary Russians, The duty contacted several people who live there or lived there until recently. The majority declined our interview request for security reasons. The others accepted, but on condition of anonymity, for the same reasons.
A family living in Saint Petersburg said they had lost their neighbor, who disappeared this winter in the wave of mobilization. The school their children attend has recently imposed “patriotic” duties, such as having to write a letter of encouragement to a mobilized soldier or to make a candle for them using empty cans. “My children are called ‘Ukrainians’ in the schoolyard because they have expressed doubts about the war”, saddens the father of the family.
The withdrawal of Western companies from Russia has left its mark on the lives of Russians. Instagram no longer works. Major clothing, beverage and entertainment chains have emptied malls. But, the buildings are otherwise intact. The large posters bearing the “Z” (symbol of the Russian invasion of Ukraine) displayed in large fashion last year have quietly faded from public space, relegating the war to an external event.
“If we talk about the poor Russian countryside, nothing has really changed,” observes Slava, a Russian exiled to Turkey a few weeks ago. “It may even have gotten better. People have gone to war for money. The poorest support the government, because the government supports them with pensions and other aid. »
The discourse swallowed by the public has changed, he confirms. The headliners of the news channels proclaimed at the start of the invasion that the war would last “only a few days”. Then, faced with the setbacks of their men in green, they began to blame NATO. “Afterwards, they were bragging about the fact that China supports us, that everyone supports us against the West. Then we realized that China doesn’t help that much. Now it’s everyone against us,” recalls Slava.
The intensity of television propaganda has also diminished. From a continuous broadcast of wartime news, programming has regained some semblance of normality. “At the beginning, it was 24 hours a day, non-stop, only specials. After nine months, it started to decrease. We are starting to have normal programs again, like on health, banal stuff, ”says the young man fresh out of university.
These warrior messages are well rooted in the minds of the people around him, he confirms. His grandparents, for example, too old to venture on the Internet, spend their day listening to propagandists ranting about their threats on the small screen. “If I talk to them, I explain my point of view to them, they will adopt it and have a more nuanced position. But, the next day, they watch television and start believing the propaganda again. You always have to start over,” sighs the young man.
Many young Russians have nevertheless turned their backs on this propaganda. Between 500,000 and 700,000 people have deserted their country over the past year, according to Russian or Western sources.