Despite global outrage and unprecedented sanctions against his country, President Vladimir Putin can count, for the moment, on the support of the Russian political elite, obsessed with “its own survival”.
Russian artists and major media figures have denounced the Russian invasion of Ukraine and even some oligarchs have voiced veiled criticism. But after nearly a month of war, there is no apparent protest within Vladimir Putin’s inner circle or among the country’s political heavyweights. “There has been no sign of a split” within the Russian ruling class, says Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of R. Politik, a bimonthly newsletter analyzing Russian politics. “There is a real consensus, notwithstanding possibly with differences in strategies”, she underlines.
She points out the difference between having reservations about the invasion and being ready to act.
“People are in shock and many think it’s a mistake. But no one is able to act. Everyone is focused on their own survival,” adds Ms.me Stanovaya.
Despite the devastating impact of the sanctions on the Russian economy, there is no sign yet that this will translate into political change in Russia, according to several Western diplomatic sources.
According to Tatiana Stanovaya, the main criticism of the invasion of Ukraine inside Russia comes from “peripheral” forces from the nationalist far right who believe that the invasion is not progressing far enough quickly.
“Too Scared”
Russian state television continues to relay the official discourse: Russia is carrying out a “special military operation”, a heroic mission against Western invasion.
The liberal opposition has disappeared, the parties represented in Parliament almost always follow the Kremlin line on all subjects and the opponent Alexeï Navalny, sworn enemy of the Kremlin, is in prison.
“It’s not really a surprise that we haven’t seen a radical split within the ruling elite,” said Ben Noble, associate professor at University College London. “Vladimir Putin has maintained a system in which he is surrounded by ultra-loyalists who share his opinion on Westerners wanting to destroy Russia or by others who are too scared to express any protest,” he adds.
On February 21, three days before launching the invasion, Putin convened a Security Council of the ruling political class to seek their advice on how to proceed on Russia’s recognition of the independence of pro-Russian separatists from Ukraine and ordered its army to enter these territories. The event was broadcast on Russian television, an unusual practice.
One after another, marching to a lectern, in a theatrical show of unity, 12 men and one woman expressed their support for this recognition, now seen as a harbinger of war.
Present at this passage at the desk were the three men who, according to Western security sources, constitute Putin’s first circle: Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev and the head of the powerful security services. (FSB), Alexander Bortnikov.
There was not the slightest murmur of protest among those who took part in this Security Council, and not even on the part of lower-ranking officers.
“Fifth Column”
On March 16, in an offensive speech before his government broadcast on television, the Russian president strongly defended his military operation in Ukraine and compared the West and its sanctions against Russia to the Nazis during the Second World War.
According to him, “the empire of lies” constituted by Western countries, the media and social networks will want to rely on “a fifth column of national-traitors” to achieve their anti-Russian objectives. “Each people, the Russian people in particular, will always be able to recognize scum and traitors, spit them out as one would spit out a fly from the mouth,” Mr. Putin had launched.
The only figure from the first circle, current and past, to demonstrate his opposition is a former Kremlin adviser and former deputy prime minister (between 2012 and 2018), Arkadi Dvorkovitch, who resigned from the management of a foundation public economy after criticizing the offensive in Ukraine in an interview with the American media mother jones.
Mr. Dvorkovitch, 49, is also the current president of the International Chess Federation (FIDE), a sport in which Russia retains significant influence.
But on the part of other former Kremlin personalities – such as ex-finance minister Alexei Kudrin, who is now head of the Russian Court of Accounts – silence has been total.
The fate of the head of the Russian Central Bank, the economist Elvira Nabioullina, has also been scrutinized. She had been photographed looking crestfallen at a meeting in the Kremlin and had posted an enigmatic video in which she acknowledged that the Russian economy was in an “extreme” situation, adding: “we all wish that hadn’t happened”.
But Vladimir Putin asked parliament this week to reinstate her, apparently debunking rumors that she might quit in protest against the war.
Rumors have also surrounded the oligarchs who stand to lose hugely from this invasion, such as Oleg Deripaska and Mikhail Fridman, both of whom made cautious comments promoting peace.
Ben Noble points out that many members of the Russian elite were shocked by the invasion, as the vast majority “were not involved in the decision-making process” and believed that Putin was only trying to extract concessions from the Westerners and not to trigger an invasion.
“However, it is one thing to make calls for peace; it is quite another to criticize Putin head-on,” he summarizes.