Russia v. Ukraine | Energy, sinews of war

While Quebec is reconsidering its options for using energy, the European continent is counting its available molecules and electrons to face the approaching winter, as well as the others that will follow. And the account is not there.

For Alexander De Croo, Prime Minister of Belgium, “the next five to ten winters will be difficult. The development of the situation is very difficult throughout Europe”.

The survival of complete industrial chains stretching across the entire European continent is at stake.

Warmed by Russia and enlightened by France, Germany, the industrial empire of Europe, rations and plans its period of weaning already launched by Moscow.

The uncertainties of the situation, including a highly probable recession, risk dealing a severe blow to the solidarity between the member countries, which is already under great pressure.

Against the backdrop of this major crisis caused by the Russian aggressor, the effects of global warming are looming, affecting the transit of matter by barge on major European rivers, including the Rhine, where the water level has reached a threshold making it almost impracticable the passage of ships carrying fuel.

The European Union, until recently intractable on issues of financial assistance to companies by member states, is considering the implementation of last resort measures to protect its industrial fabric.

We are already witnessing the erosion of big industry, which this week is knocking on the doors of the European Union, in view of its emergency meeting on energy which will take place on Friday, in order to obtain a series of rescue as well as a restructuring of European energy policy aimed at securing critical industrial sectors to ensure Europe’s strategic autonomy.

First and foremost is the aluminum smelter sector, which has been hit hard by the considerable rise in energy costs (more than 10 times previous prices). More than 400,000 tons of capacity have been pulled from the market, with a likely withdrawal of more than 500,000 more tons over the next few months, analysts said.

To date, 50% of European capacity has disappeared. Other sectors such as zinc, silicone, copper and nickel are also affected.

The price shock caused by the supply shock is obviously destructive. The energy dynamic is complex, especially when the national interest of 27 States is at stake. Alternative solutions, even if they exist, will be very expensive for a long time. Europe’s industrial profile could be called upon to change, affecting at the same time its commercial relations with other blocs such as America.

From a Quebec perspective, it is certainly appropriate to draw a lesson from this situation: access to energy at a competitive cost is fundamental to supporting industrial production in sectors critical to the development of the economy and the decarbonization of the planet. . In a world increasingly dominated by China, it is in the best interests of nations.