The Royal Bank boss believes market volatility driven by geopolitical risks won’t be enough to derail upcoming interest rate hikes and the underlying strength of the economy.
The statements made by Royal Chief Executive Dave McKay on Thursday come after Russia’s first military offensive against Ukraine overnight Wednesday-Thursday sent markets plunging and generating shock. uncertainty about the potential fallout from unprovoked aggression.
“Geopolitical risk tends to subside over time, but can be quite volatile in the short term,” McKay said on a conference call to discuss the bank’s latest financial results. “So I still expect the strength of the economy, the inflationary pressures that we’ve talked about, the economic capacity used […], still allow some form of rate hike to go ahead and monetary policy to continue to tighten. »
The Royal’s chief risk officer, Graeme Hepworth, said on the call that the bank had no direct or significant exposure to Russia or Ukraine because of the underlying risks, so that the bank focus more on the indirect impacts that could result from the conflict, such as rising commodity prices.
The Russian action has already helped push oil briefly above US$100 a barrel for the first time since 2014, while natural gas prices also rise. “These are things that will continue to fuel and exacerbate current risk concerns like inflation,” Hepworth said.
Geopolitical risk is just one of the economic challenges discussed by Mr. McKay, as supply chain disruptions, acute labor shortages and energy market imbalances also cause of uncertainty. The bank’s big boss, however, argued that the underlying economic drivers were still strong.
“As we pass the peak [de la vague de contaminations au variant] Omicron, we can expect record household savings — over $200 billion in Canada alone — to drive consumer spending on goods and services; that renewed immigration stimulates demand for housing; increased business investment in preventative inventory strategies and the development of new digital capabilities. »
Profit above expectations
The bank’s optimism comes amid Royal beat analysts’ expectations in its most recent quarter, posting net income of $4.1 billion, or $2.84 per share, for the quarter ended Jan. 31. , compared with that of 3.8 billion, or $2.66 per share, for the same period a year earlier. On an adjusted basis, Royal’s earnings per share were $2.87 for the most recent quarter, down from $2.69 a year earlier. Analysts on average had expected adjusted earnings of $2.73 per share, according to financial data firm Refinitiv.
Provisions for credit losses hit $105 million in the most recent quarter, compared with $110 million in the same period a year earlier.
Barclays analyst John Aiken noted that the bank performed better than expected, particularly in capital markets-related revenue, with transactions rebounding 40% and advisory fees rising 7%. Canadian retail banking also posted gains, with average loans up 9.7% year-over-year, offsetting a slight decline in net interest margins.
“Results were fairly clean and set the stage for a good run for the bank for the rest of the year, as planned rate increases should fuel further revenue growth, offsetting any potential decline in volumes. »
Royal Bank’s Personal and Commercial Banking reported a profit of $1.97 billion, up from $1.79 billion a year ago, supported by strength in Canadian banking, including loan growth residential mortgages.
The wealth management division earned $795 million, up from $641 million a year ago, while the capital markets division gained $1.03 billion, down from nearly 1.07 billion from last year.
Investor and treasury services made a profit of 118 million, down from 123 million a year ago, while the Royal’s insurance business earned 197 million, slightly less than the 201 million generated in the same quarter last year.