Russia is trying Monday to give an image of normality, whether it is the Kremlin or the paramilitary group Wagner, whose leader Yevgeny Prigojine has nevertheless challenged, arms in hand, Vladimir Putin.
The Russian president thus appeared for the first time since the end of the revolt on Saturday evening in a pre-recorded video in which he addresses a forum devoted to youth and industry. There is no word of the mutiny and it was not possible to determine where and when the footage was shot.
According to the Kremlin, he also spoke with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and the Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, who both expressed their “support” for the Russian leader following the armed rebellion.
The Wagner group assured him that his headquarters in Saint Petersburg (north-west) was operating “normally”, while Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov noted that the paramilitaries would continue their operations in Mali and the Central African Republic. The organization has also resumed its recruitment in certain regions of Russia, according to the state agency Tass.
Mr. Putin has not spoken publicly about the rebellion since his televised address on Saturday, in the midst of the crisis, in which he accused Mr. Prigozhin of treason.
For his part, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who had vanished during the rebellion of the boss of Wagner, his pet peeve, reappeared Monday in a video inspecting forces engaged in Ukraine. However, it was not possible to determine when these images were filmed.
Apparent normality
Another sign of this effort to return to normal, the authorities announced the end of the “anti-terrorist operation regime”, which confers expanded powers on the security forces, in the Moscow region and that of Voronezh, in the south of the capital, where Wagner units had entered and where exchanges of fire took place.
Mr. Prigojine, a businessman who was an ally of Mr. Putin responsible for doing many of Moscow’s dirty tricks, ended his rebellion on Saturday night, in exchange for immunity promised by the Kremlin for him and his men.
But on Monday, Russian news agencies all announced that the criminal investigation against him for “calling for armed mutiny” was still ongoing.
The mystery was total as to the whereabouts of the head of Wagner who has not communicated since Saturday evening and while, according to the Kremlin, he should go into exile in Belarus, which the person concerned does not has not confirmed.
Another enigma: what fate for the 25,000 men whom Wagner says he has? Are they in their camps in Ukraine, or in bases in Russia? And will they come under the orders of the Russian Ministry of Defense, or remain autonomous?
Despite the appearance of normality on Monday, Wagner’s spectacular display between Friday night and Saturday night shook the country.
For 24 hours, Mr. Prigozhin’s forces seized several military sites in the strategic southwestern city of Rostov and traveled hundreds of kilometers towards Moscow, meeting visibly little resistance.
In Rostov, his men were even cheered on as they left the military HQ for the war in Ukraine which they had managed to take.
If the coup ended as suddenly as it began, this crisis represents the greatest challenge that Vladimir Putin has faced since he came to power in late 1999.
Scrutinized in all the chancelleries, this crisis “reveals real cracks” at the highest level of the Russian state, said Sunday the American Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
Wagner’s mutiny shows that the assault on Ukraine was a “strategic error”, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg added on Monday.
Big blow for Putin
“Putin and the state have received a big blow that will have significant consequences for the regime,” said independent Russian analyst Tatiana Stanovaya.
By launching his mutiny, the head of Wagner had promised to “liberate the Russian people”, targeting his two sworn enemies, Sergei Shoigu and the chief of staff Valéri Guérassimov, whom he accuses of having sacrificed tens of thousands men in Ukraine.
If Mr. Gerasimov has not appeared in public since the crisis, the images of Mr. Shoigu visiting troops in Ukraine released on Monday seem intended to ensure that he is in charge.
We see the minister listen serenely to a general’s report, study maps and inspect Russian positions by helicopter.
Many analysts believe that the crisis in Russia could weaken Russian forces on the ground and benefit those in kyiv, which have been leading a difficult counter-offensive for several weeks.
On Monday, Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Ganna Maliar announced modest further progress, as the Ukrainian army nibbling 17 km of additional ground against Moscow’s forces, or 130 km2 since early June. She said that the locality of Rivnopil, on the southern front, in the Donetsk region, had been taken over.
The Russian Ministry of Defense assured him that it had repelled all Ukrainian attacks and had destroyed and killed a number of Ukrainian weapons and soldiers.