(Ottawa) Mexico has given up imposing reprisals on Canada for its decision to bring back the visa requirement for its nationals. But would the migration restriction have led to the cancellation of the “Three Amigos” summit, which was to take place in Canada? On this subject, there is radio silence in the Trudeau government.
What there is to know
The Canadian government reimposed the visa requirement on Mexican travelers on February 29, with a few exceptions.
Ulcerated by the decision, the President of Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, threatened Canada to respond with sanctions.
He also announced his boycott of the “Three Amigos” summit, which was to take place in Canada.
The fate of the trilateral meeting does not seem to have been decided, against the backdrop of upcoming presidential elections in Mexico and the United States.
The turn of the screw announced last February by the Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship, Marc Miller, was received in a frosty manner in Mexico.
“Mexico regrets this decision and believes that there were other options before implementing this measure” and “reserves the right to act in reciprocity,” warned the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, nicknamed “AMLO,” decried a “unilateral and disrespectful approach,” and he had not ruled out the idea of hitting Canada with economic sanctions.
In Ottawa, Minister Miller was not surprised by the anger expressed in the Mexican camp, conceding that a “range of choices” were available to them “in the days and weeks to come”.
The option to fight back was put aside.
“We consider this file closed. There will be no reciprocity measures,” said a spokesperson for the Mexican embassy in Canada on Tuesday.
In Minister Miller’s office, we reacted in a rather laconic manner, undoubtedly to avoid celebrating after having inflicted a snub on an allied country.
“Canada and Mexico maintain good cooperative relations, which have continued to strengthen over the past eight years,” we simply declared in an email on Wednesday.
Mexico has also not hit its North American partner with trade sanctions.
On the economic front, moreover, the Canadian government is working behind the scenes in the hope of maintaining harmony with the Mexican government, according to our information.
Because a return of Donald Trump to the White House could complicate the obligatory review of the Canada – United States – Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) in 2026, and Ottawa wants to be able to count on Mexico.
What about the “Three Amigos” summit?
The “Three Amigos” summit, scheduled for Quebec this month, could have proved a perfect opportunity to set the table for this revision of the trade pact.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau “was pleased to welcome President López Obrador to Canada,” according to a report of a meeting between the two men on the sidelines of the APEC summit.
But that was last November 17.
“If there is no respectful treatment, I will not participate,” protested Andrés Manuel López Obrador on February 28, in reaction to the return of compulsory visas for his compatriots.
“Besides, I only have seven months left [avant de quitter la présidence]and I don’t like traveling very much,” he continued during one of his daily press conferences.
Prime Minister Trudeau’s office, which was supposed to host the summit, refused to say whether it was canceled. “We have no news to confirm at this time,” wrote spokesperson Mohammad Hussain.
In fact, the Canadian government never confirmed that the meeting would take place.
However, the information was communicated to local media by the Mexican government on February 7, three weeks before the migratory tightening announced by Ottawa.
And finally, “our understanding is that the summit is not taking place,” we said Tuesday at the Mexican embassy in Canada.
The last meeting of its kind took place in Mexico in January 2023.
PHOTO ADRIAN WYLD, THE CANADIAN PRESS
United States President Joe Biden, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at the latest North American Leaders’ Summit in January 2023
Canada was the host in June 2016, in Ottawa, when Justin Trudeau rolled out the red carpet for Barack Obama and Enrique Peña Nieto.
The tradition was broken under the Trump administration before resuming under the leadership of Joe Biden.
A “necessary” change
The Liberals made lifting the visa requirement an election promise during the 2015 campaign.
Decreed under Stephen Harper’s Conservatives in 2009 to stem the flow of false asylum requests, the measure caused diplomatic chill between Ottawa and Mexico.
The considerable increase in asylum requests from Mexicans has overcome liberal openness.
“In 2023, asylum applications from Mexican citizens represented 17% of all applications filed that year, all nationalities combined,” explained Marc Miller when announcing the verdict.
And since “most” of the requests were either rejected or abandoned by the applicants, a shift was “necessary”, he illustrated.
The electoral calendar
If a trilateral summit were to be held in the coming months, the schedule complicates things: voters from two of the three amigos will soon be called to the polls.
The Mexican presidential election will take place on June 2. The favorite is Claudia Sheinbaum, from the same left-wing party as Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
In the United States, the presidential election is on November 5; we will then know who, Joe Biden or Donald Trump, will win in this rematch.