Justin Trudeau gathers his cabinet in Montreal for three days before the resumption of parliamentary work after the winter break. On the agenda: start preparing Canada for a Trump return to power which seems increasingly likely.
Trudeau had a rocky relationship with Trump during his first term. He recently told the Montreal Chamber of Commerce that his return to the White House would be a “step backwards” and “will not be easy” for Canada.
Trump-Trudeau relations deteriorated at the G7 summit in Charlevoix in 2018 when Trump even went so far as to accuse Trudeau of being weak and dishonest before blaming him for the failure of the summit.
If Trump returns to power, Canadian officials can expect even more difficult relations with him, warned Anthony Scaramucci, the former White House communications director. He told CTV that the former president is “very jealous of Justin Trudeau.” It bothers him that Trudeau is “younger and much prettier than him.”
Most analysts – including me – think that a second Trumpian mandate would be just as bad for Canada as the first and even worse. Canadians as a whole are also pessimistic about Trump.
A third of Canadians for Trump
According to a recent Angus Reid poll, about two-thirds of Canadians believe that American democracy will not survive another 4 years of Trump in the White House. And about half of respondents say our southern neighbor is becoming an authoritarian state.
If 67% of Canadians support Biden, 33% of them are for Trump, which is distressing and worrying. An approval rate higher than that of Justin Trudeau, 31%.
What to do against Trump?
Can Canada prepare to face a new Trump administration? “No,” said Fr.r Thomas Juneau, specialist in international relations at the University of Ottawa. “No one can be ready, because it would be so unpredictable.”
Among Trump’s favorite targets where we will have difficulty defending ourselves, he cites the Canada-United States-Mexico Free Trade Agreement, the renewal of which is scheduled for July 2026. Canada is particularly vulnerable to any shift American protectionist, three-quarters of the goods and services it exports go to the United States.
A return of Trump also means pressure to increase our defense spending, particularly in the United States. We participate with the United States in NORAD (North American air defense) and the “Five Eyes” global electronic espionage network. As for NATO, it is not clear that Trump will want to stay there.
Trudeau and Trump also completely disagree on environmental issues. The Liberals have made the fight against climate change a priority. Trudeau speaks of the “four wasted years” of the Trump administration which refuses even to recognize that there is global warming which threatens the planet.
Trudeau compared Trump’s candidacy for the presidency of the United States to the rise of Pierre Poilievre in Canada. The conservative leader is however “to the left” of Trump on a host of issues and he is clearly more coherent than the uneducated American egocentric megalomaniac.