Uncontrolled immigration, meteoric rise in the cost of living, failing public services, multiplication of armed conflicts around the world: for a growing number of citizens, our societies are increasingly disordered.
This perception is particularly evident in Donald Trump’s campaign for the nomination of the Republican Party. Unlike his 2016 campaign, where he presented himself as the breakaway candidate, Trump is now campaigning as the only one capable of restoring order and bringing stability.
According to pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson, American voters no longer want a candidate who disrupts the political scene, but rather a candidate who can restore order to the economy and public finances, on the border between the United States and Mexico, and worldwide.
Even if Trump is not a priori perceived as the candidate of order, due to his excesses and his controversial remarks, the fact remains, Anderson maintains, that his main argument is that he is the the only one who can restore order.
This argument, she believes, could appeal to voters who voted for Joe Biden in 2020, precisely with the aim of reestablishing a semblance of order, a promise which, in the eyes of many of them, was not fulfilled. fulfilled under his presidency.
Despite the renewed strength of the American economy, especially the decline in inflation and unemployment, the increase in wages and productivity, many Americans consider that the economy and their personal finances have deteriorated.
The Republicans do not hesitate to contrast Biden’s support for Ukraine with the economic difficulties facing the Americans. It is, they say, incomprehensible that the United States is contributing financially to the Ukrainian war effort while millions of Americans are suffering economically.
We find the same aspiration to restore order in Canada, where a majority of voters believe that the Canadian economy, like their personal finances, is deteriorating. Some even argue that Canada is in the grip of an “economic malaise”.
This is what the Pollara firm reveals, which, in its Economic Outlook 2024, indicates that 53% of Canadians are worried about the state of their personal finances and that 46% expect a drop in income. This malaise would be caused by the state of the housing market and the increase in interest rates.
This explains why the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, Pierre Poilievre, keeps saying that “Canada is broken” and that he can restore order to the economy and public finances, public services and the market. of the dwelling.
Although he sometimes makes controversial remarks, Pierre Poilievre does not aim so much to overturn the political spectrum as to be the candidate who can restore order in the face of a Liberal government perceived as being overwhelmed by events and incapable of improve the economic prospects of Canadians.
Note, moreover, that the Conservatives voted against the bill on the modernization of the Canada-Ukraine Free Trade Agreement under the pretext that it includes “a carbon tax”, which, they claim, penalizes economically Canadians.
What about Quebec? In addition to the about-faces and blunders committed over the last year, the Legault government is increasingly perceived as being incapable of providing quality services in health, education and transportation as well as access to housing.
If this perception were to take hold in the minds of a majority of voters, it could compromise the chances of re-election of the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in 2026.
Who could benefit from this new political situation? Caution is required: there are a little less than three years before the next election, the lead of the Parti Québécois is fragile and, with a new leader, the Liberals could once again become the alternative to the CAQ.
Whether on the other hand, in the United States, Canada and Quebec, the restoration of order constitutes a major political challenge which risks influencing the next electoral events. Whoever knows how to embody order will be well positioned to gain the trust of voters.