Don’t ask yourself why there are clashes between Ottawa and Quebec over immigration. The objectives pursued by Justin Trudeau and François Legault, who are meeting this Friday, go in the opposite direction to what was concluded more than 30 years ago.
It was 1991. The Meech Lake Accord to reintegrate Quebec into the Canadian family had just collapsed. But from its ruins was born the Canada-Quebec Accord which took up the broad outlines of Meech’s chapter on immigration.
At the heart of the agreement: setting immigration targets. The objective: to guarantee that Quebec, struggling with a high birth rate, maintains its demographic weight of 25% within Canada, as Robert Bourassa demanded.
This posed a virtually insoluble problem. Either Ottawa established its national target, forcing Quebec to take 25% of this number. Either Quebec set its provincial target, forcing Ottawa to multiply by four to reach the Canadian target.
So that no government falls behind the other, we agreed on the “best efforts” approach. Quebec would do its best to reach 25% and Ottawa would give it the means to get there by setting a reasonable national target and providing generous funding for francization.
However, Quebec has never come close to 25%. At the moment, we are at only 14%.
In the province, permanent immigration has remained rather stable, increasing from around 50,000 in 1991 to 65,000 in 2022. Meanwhile, it has almost doubled in Canada, to reach 470,000 people, with Justin’s migratory aims Trudeau who put Quebec on the defensive.
This is how the weight of Quebec, which had already fallen from 29% to 25% between 1951 and 1991, has slipped to 22% today, without anyone seeming to worry too much.
If there were a serious dialogue on this fundamental issue, and not just on the multiple quarrels that result from it, we would succeed in meeting each other halfway, with viable and reasonable targets.
But what is the point of planning permanent immigration if we welcome more non-permanent immigrants?
We are talking about foreign students who swell the coffers of CEGEPs and universities, which suits the government by the gang. We are also talking about temporary workers, often low-skilled, who help companies deal with labor shortages. But instead of relying on the crutch of cheap labor, employers should invest to boost their lagging productivity.
It is not normal for schools and employers to determine the number of immigrants, without an overall view of the desirable level for society. It is up to the State to ensure that immigration is not out of control, as it is at the moment.
In 2022-2023, Quebec saw almost 150,000 non-permanent residents enter… more than double the number of permanent residents.
In Canada, almost 700,000 non-permanent people were added last year… 20 times more than the annual flow to which we were accustomed before 2016.
By adding permanent residents, the Canadian population increased by 1.2 million last year, or 3.2% of its population (+2.5% in Quebec). This level is five times higher than the average for OECD countries (+0.6%).
This major and unplanned increase weighs on the housing crisis and on social services. Even the labor market is no longer providing: the unemployment rate is rising because job creation is not vigorous enough to cover demographic growth.
More and more economists are sounding the alarm. Canada is stuck in a “demographic trap,” warns Stéfane Marion, at the National Bank1.
The proof ? Although immigration stimulates economic growth, real (after inflation) gross domestic product (GDP) per capita is declining. In other words, the pie is getting bigger, but there is less for everyone to eat.
To ensure our collective well-being, better immigration planning is necessary. Both permanent and temporary. Both in Quebec and in Canada. We need common thinking based on something other than political slogans and parochial wars.
François Legault dreams in color when he calls for the repatriation of all immigration powers. Knowing that the answer will be no, he affirms in advance that there are “other options that present themselves”. Here is one…
To regain control of temporary immigration, it would be possible to better use the Canada-Quebec Accord, article 22 of which provides that “the consent of Quebec is required” before the admission of any student or temporary foreign worker ( without exception).
These are powers that the province could use, without having to renegotiate the entire agreement. To establish this veto, the Legault government could call on the joint committee, another tool provided for in the agreement in order to establish collaboration mechanisms.
But for it to work, everyone must put their “best efforts” into it.
1. Consult the study “Canada is caught in a demographic trap”