Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers warned Thursday that interest rates may not return to the low levels people were accustomed to before the COVID-19 pandemic.
“We might be tempted to believe that the low rates to which we have become accustomed will end up returning one day. But there are reasons to think that this may not be the case,” said Mr.me Rogers in a speech Thursday.
In the prepared text of her remarks, the vice governor noted that structural changes in the global economy, such as the shift from saving to spending by baby boomers entering retirement, could lead to higher rates of interest.
Higher levels of public debt and geopolitical risks such as the war between Israel and Gaza could also push up rates, she said.
“There’s obviously a lot of uncertainty in all of this. But it’s not hard to imagine a world where interest rates remain sustainably higher than what people have become accustomed to,” Ms. Rogers said.
The Bank of Canada has aggressively raised interest rates over the past year and a half, raising its policy rate target from 0.25% to 5.0% – its highest level since 2001.
These increases were aimed at slowing inflation after a rapid rise in prices in the wake of the pandemic.
However, economists say rates may not return to their low pre-pandemic levels as the global economy undergoes structural changes.
Already adaptation
Canadians are already getting a taste of life with higher interest rates, as more people renew their mortgages at higher rates and face higher borrowing costs.
Mme Rogers pointed out that the world was already adjusting to the reality of higher interest rates, leaving little “wiggle room” for the global financial system should it face a shock.
She said adjusting to higher rates in the long run would be a big change for everyone, from governments to businesses to households.
“Early and gradual adaptation reduces the risk of having to take abrupt or even destabilizing measures later,” argued Carolyn Rogers.
The first deputy governor noted that data shows that Canadians are currently adapting to higher interest rates by reducing both their spending and their demand for credit.
Businesses are also feeling the pressure of rising interest rates, as demand for their goods and services slows and debt servicing costs rise.
Mme Rogers warned that more adjustments were coming as previous rate hikes ripple through the economy.
“The effects of interest rate increases are still rippling through the economy. We will have to closely monitor both credit tension indicators and survey data to see how businesses and households are adapting,” she said.