Gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.1% in Quebec in April 2022, compared to the previous month. This is the first decrease since September 2021.
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In March, the increase was 0.7%. However, according to data released Tuesday by the Institute of Statistics of Quebec (ISQ), “the level of production of half of the 20 major sectors of economic activity decreased in April”.
“A slight decline in economic activity was anticipated in Quebec in April following the exceptional growth of the previous months,” analyzed Hélène Bégin, senior economist at Desjardins.
“On the one hand, the recovery of sectors that have been hit hard by the closures is continuing at a slower pace. On the other hand, the goods sector could hardly maintain the unbridled pace of recent months,” she added.
Thus, goods-producing industries fell 0.6% in April, after gaining 0.9% a month earlier.
This decrease is mainly due to the agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting (-2%), public services (-1.8%), construction (-1.4%) and mining sectors, oil and gas (-0.9%).
Conversely, the manufacturing sector recorded an increase of 0.5%. Service-producing industries, for their part, rose 0.1% in April. This increase is attributable in particular to the arts, entertainment and recreation industry, whose activity increased by 6.3%, after a 21% increase in March, as well as the transportation and warehousing (+2.2%).
Professional, scientific and technical services (+1%), retail trade (+0.6%) also recorded gains. Conversely, the wholesale trade and finance and insurance sectors saw declines of 1.6% and 0.7% respectively in April.
A slight recovery expected in May
For economist Hélène Bégin, the decline in the province’s real GDP in April “does not necessarily signal a change of course” for the province’s economy. “The various statistics published so far for the month of May are much more positive than the previous month. Even if a revival is expected in May, it should be small,” she said.
After recording strong annualized growth of 6.9% in the first quarter, real GDP “will not be able to maintain the pace,” said Ms. Bégin, who also believes that the rapid rise in interest rates in the country as well as high inflation “should moderate household spending”.
For the first four months of 2022, Quebec’s real GDP is 4.2% higher than that of the same months of 2021, noted the ISQ.
According to information published by Statistics Canada, Canadian real GDP at basic prices increased by 0.3% in April 2022 compared to the previous month.