GRDF, the French network manager, is preparing for the worst and fears that it will soon have to do without Russian gas supplies, if Vladimir Putin decides to turn off the tap: “It’s a likely scenario and we have to prepare for it”estimated Tuesday March 29 on franceinfo Thierry Bros, energy specialist and professor at Sciences Po.
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GRDF calls on individuals and manufacturers to reduce their consumption so as not to dip into stocks: “We must find 10% reduction” at the European level “and therefore everyone will have to bring their small stone to the building. But 10% is a lot”, he said. According to him, “the time of gas pipelines is over”. Today, “it’s time for liquefied natural gas” to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian gas.
Russia completely cutting off the tap, is that a scenario that you describe as probable?
Thierry Bros: Yes, it is likely and we must prepare for it. It is likely because perhaps the Commission, pushed by the citizens, will put an embargo on coal, oil, then Russian gas. And then, it is also likely because Vladimir Putin can decide at any time to turn off the tap and therefore we must be prepared for this alternative. We have to stock up on gas for next winter. We are at 21% stock. You have to be around 85%? Yes, but in France, we already had regulations that allowed it. But it is necessary to be at this level at the level of the European mesh, since what is important is not that France is Europe, since the security of supply is looked at at the level of the ‘Europe. And it is unfortunately the worst student in Europe who will guarantee or not the security of supply for all Europeans.
The Regulatory Commission estimates that this could cost 10 billion euros, five times more expensive than normal. Who will the bill fall on?
Normally, it should fall on gas consumers at the end, ie residential, industrial and electricity producers. The government may take steps to limit the increase for individuals.
Is it relevant to ask manufacturers and individuals to reduce their gas consumption?
This is relevant since if tomorrow we have no more Russian gas, some of the gas is irreplaceable and therefore we will have to collectively in Europe reduce our consumption by 10%. So, you have to find a 10% reduction and therefore everyone will have to bring their small stone to the building. But 10% is a lot. Who can supply us with gas other than Russia? We can manage to recover cargoes of liquefied natural gas, which we have already done in December, since I remind you that in December, we had record gas prices and therefore cargoes of liquefied natural gas were rerouted. Instead of going to Asia, they came back to Europe and we can continue to do that, of course, at high prices. Since we have to encourage these shipments to come to us and therefore have higher prices than in Asia. A gas pipeline between Israel and Turkey could be a solution to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian hydrocarbons. Is it a serious project? There are a lot of projects that I call PowerPoint gas pipelines, that is, they are shown at conferences without ever being built. A gas pipeline is about ten billion euros or dollars of investment and I think the time of gas pipelines is over. In fact, it is the era of liquefied natural gas since it is necessary to have this capacity to reroute the flows. However, the gas pipeline, as we can clearly see with the Russian crisis, does not allow this. So, no interest in this gas pipeline.
Could biogas, from agricultural and organic waste, be a solution to ensure a large part of our consumption in the future?
You have to bear in mind that biogas costs much more than the natural gas produced and delivered in France. There is a factor of 5. Natural gas, when you produce it, costs very little. Today, it is paid very dearly on the markets because there is a shortage of it. But if we make the necessary investments in Qatar, Algeria, or even the United States, we can have natural gas in Europe that will cost less than biomethane. So biomethane has an advantage, it increases our energy independence and reduces our CO2 emissions.