presidential election in Nigeria | A tense election

The results of the tight race for the presidency of Nigeria are being revealed in dribs and drabs. The counting continued on Monday to name the winner, against a backdrop of technical problems and mistrust in Africa’s most populous country. A look back at an important ballot in five questions.

How are the results shaping up after Saturday’s vote?

If 18 candidates aspired to the presidency of Nigeria, the race seems to be played between 3 men: Bola Tinubu, Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi.

The results remained very partial on Monday. A run-off could take place in mid-March if no candidate manages to win a majority of votes and at least 25% in two-thirds of the 36 states and the capital territory, Abuja.

Bola Tinubu, the 70-year-old candidate of the currently ruling party, has won at least three states. He hopes to succeed Muhammadu Buhari, in office for eight years.

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, 76, is running for the presidency for the sixth time.

Could a candidate create a surprise?

Outside of the big parties represented by Mr Tinubu and Mr Abubakar, 61-year-old Peter Obi created an upset by winning Lagos State, the stronghold of Mr Tinubu’s party.

He represents change in the eyes of many Nigerians.

“He is the disruptive element, the one who attracts young people, as we see in several countries”, comments on the telephone Rita Abrahamsen, professor at the University of Ottawa – specifying that he particularly appeals to the urban and rather educated fringe. of the new generation.

Although it is too early to foresee a winner, Dele Babalola, of Canterbury Christ Church University in the United Kingdom, does not believe in the victory of Christian Peter Obi.

“Several factors determine how an election is won or lost in Nigeria,” says the lecturer from the country. One of them is ethnic identity. Another is religious identity. »

There are 250 ethnic groups in this country of 216 million inhabitants, where the North is mainly Muslim and the South, Christian.

Why are we talking about an important election?

The weight of Nigeria is both regional and continental, economic and security. This is an important election for Nigerians, but also for the continent, notes Mr. Babalola. “Nigeria is seen as an example of democracy,” he explains. All eyes are on Nigeria because no one wants to see democracy overthrown in Nigeria. »

The country lived through a military dictatorship and returned to democracy in 1999. “No one would want a repeat of that period,” says Babalola. It could lead to a violent conflict, and if there is a violent conflict in a country of more than 200 million, that means serious problems, for example, with regard to a refugee crisis. »

Nigeria is also the continent’s largest economy, although it has been faltering for several years. “It is a country with enormous potential, insists M^me Abrahamsen. Nigeria is the powerhouse of Nollywood and the film industry on the continent. It has a lot of potential, but at the same time it has been badly governed; security declined and economic prosperity plummeted. So there is a great desire for things to change. »

What were the challenges with the vote?

For the first time, Nigeria used an electronic electoral process, but uploading the results was a problem. Accusations of fraud and attempts to compromise the results have emerged. Observers from the European Union noted the “lack of transparency” of the Independent National Electoral Commission, responsible for the elections, and the failures in the organization of the poll, which continued until the evening of Saturday due to problems techniques.

More than 87 million people were called to vote. According to the Nigerian data analysis organization SBM Intelligence, violent events linked to the polls broke out in 13 states.

“In some parts of the country, like in the north, we know there are already problems in some areas and the elections provide an opportunity for them to escalate or find a new way to articulate themselves,” said M^me Abrahamsen.

What are the main challenges the new president will face?

The challenges, in the country on its way to becoming the third most populous country in the world by 2050, are many. “No matter who emerges from the race, he will have a lot to do, particularly in terms of the unity of the country, believes Mr. Babalola. Because the country right now is deeply divided along ethnic lines, along religious lines, along regional lines. So the next president will have to work very hard to unite the country. »

The country is also grappling with security problems linked in particular to Islamist terrorism and banditry.

The economy, one of the decisive issues, is also at the top of the concerns of Nigerians. “Under the last presidency, since 2015, Nigerians have become poorer, living standards have declined,” said Ms.^me Abrahamsen.

With Agence France-Presse and the Associated Press